기후환경변수와 한국의 지역별 총요소생산성의 연관성에 관한 연구 = A Study on the Climate Environmental Factors and Regional Total Factor Productivity in Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper aims to study the effects of climate change on regional total factor productivity in Korea. For the last 100 years, the average annual temperature of primary cities in Korea has risen by 1.7℃. According to IPCC, the average temperature of Korea is expected to rise by at least 3.0℃ and up to 5.9℃. One characteristic of climate change in Korea is regional differentiation according to geographic features. Climate change may bring about asymmetric economic effects on the different regions of Korea. OLS regression analysis shows that both temperature and precipitation have a positive effect on total factor productivity across all regions.
In the case of Korea, climate changes, including the rise in annual average temperature and increase in precipitation levels, have various positive effects on total factor productivity. These positive effects include increases in crop yields, increases in possible operation days in the manufacturing sector, and increases in service sector competitiveness.
Panel analysis shows that temperature is a significant impact factor that affects regional total factor productivity of Korea. The findings show that rainfall is not a significant factor in the model. Moreover, while rising average temperature increases regional total factor productivity, extremely high temperatures have a negative effect. Drastic climate change is more serious than gradual climate change because there is not enough time to adapt to it. Previous studies show that the rise of average temperature causes the fall of the economic growth rate. However, this study shows while drastic increase in temperature drops the level economic growth, a gradual increase in average temperature has a positive effect on the economy. In the case of Korea, as global warming causes shorter winters and longer summers, the labor days of outdoor workers have increased and double cropping in the southern coast have become possible. In sum, global climate change may have different effects across the different regions of Korea and the world.
Also, this study estimates the pattern of climate change in the long term and the increase in the effect of climatic variance. This study analyzes how factors of climate change, not only the average temperature and precipitation but also changes in the variance of temperature and precipitation, have effects on productivity. It shows that it is essential to raise the adaptability to climate change. The study shows that the rise of the highest temperature has a negative effect on total factor productivity. That countries cannot adequately adjust to climate change us expected to have negative effects on total factor productivity.
While this study analyzes the effects of primary factors of climate change in total factor productivity, such as temperature and precipitation, other factors like meteorological damage and etc. has not been studied in this research. As not only climate variance but climatic damage may have a significant effect on total factor productivity, it is necessary to analyze the economic effects of the interaction among climate environment factors on various climate change factors. In addition, the future study includes through developing the climate environment index we need to comprehensively analyze interaction effects of various factors.

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