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      홍수 방재를 위한 레이더 강우 예측 및 평가에 관한 연구 = A Study on Radar Rainfall Prediction and Evaluation for Flood Disaster Prevention

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      https://www.riss.kr/link?id=A109295050

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      다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract) kakao i 다국어 번역

      Due to the recent climate change, the frequency of heavy rains is increasing, and have sudden and local characteristics in urban areas, so the damage to life and property is also increasing, and it is structurally vulnerable to floods due to rapid urbanization. In this study, in order to evaluate the usability of flood disaster prevention of radar rainfall, the rainfall radar of the Ministry of Environment was used to evaluate the accuracy of radar observation rainfall with the rainfall at the point of the rain station in Jeonha-dong in Busan for 6 rainfall events, including typhoons and stationary front that occurred from 2019 to 2021. In addition, predicted rainfall was generated by using a translation model that predicts rainfall while moving the rainfall distribution according to the translation vector by extrapolating time series radar data, and the accuracy of predicted rainfall was evaluated by comparing it with the ground-observed rainfall. As a result of radar rainfall observation and prediction accuracy evaluation, it was confirmed that sufficient accuracy was shown in utilizing rainfall radar data in the flood disaster prevention area.
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      Due to the recent climate change, the frequency of heavy rains is increasing, and have sudden and local characteristics in urban areas, so the damage to life and property is also increasing, and it is structurally vulnerable to floods due to rapid urb...

      Due to the recent climate change, the frequency of heavy rains is increasing, and have sudden and local characteristics in urban areas, so the damage to life and property is also increasing, and it is structurally vulnerable to floods due to rapid urbanization. In this study, in order to evaluate the usability of flood disaster prevention of radar rainfall, the rainfall radar of the Ministry of Environment was used to evaluate the accuracy of radar observation rainfall with the rainfall at the point of the rain station in Jeonha-dong in Busan for 6 rainfall events, including typhoons and stationary front that occurred from 2019 to 2021. In addition, predicted rainfall was generated by using a translation model that predicts rainfall while moving the rainfall distribution according to the translation vector by extrapolating time series radar data, and the accuracy of predicted rainfall was evaluated by comparing it with the ground-observed rainfall. As a result of radar rainfall observation and prediction accuracy evaluation, it was confirmed that sufficient accuracy was shown in utilizing rainfall radar data in the flood disaster prevention area.

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      참고문헌 (Reference)

      1 윤성심 ; 배덕효, "The Applicability Assesment of the Short-term Rainfall Forecasting Using Translation Model" 43 (43): 695-707, 2010

      2 Yoon, Seong Sim, "Status of Urban Flooding Prediction and Response Utilization of Radar Rainfall Information" 57 (57): 25-36, 2024

      3 Nakakita, E., "Short-term Rainfall Prediction Method Using a Volume Scanning Radar and Grid Point Value Data from Numerical Weather Prediction" 101 (101): 26181-26197, 1996

      4 Bowler, N. E., "STEPS : A Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasting Scheme which Merges an Extrapolation Nowcast with Downscaled NWP" 132 (132): 2127-2155, 2006

      5 Reyniers, M., "Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based on Radar Observations: Principles, Algorithms and Operational Systems" Institut Royal Météorologique de Belgique 2008

      6 Collier, C. G., "On the Propagation of Uncertainty in Weather Radar Estimates of Rainfall through Hydrological Models" 16 : 35-40, 2009

      7 Shiiba, M., "Investigation of Short-term Rainfall Prediction Method by a Translation Model" 423-428, 1984

      8 Yu, Wan Sik, "Improvement of Rainfall and Flood Forecasts by Blending Ensemble NWP Rainfall with Radar Prediction Considering Orographic Rainfall" 531 : 494-507, 2015

      9 Mascaro, G., "Implications of Ensemble Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Errors on Distributed Streamflow Forecasting" 11 : 69-86, 2010

      10 Seed, A. W., "Formulation and Evaluation of a Scale Decomposition-based Stochastic Precipitation Nowcast Scheme" 49 (49): 6624-6641, 2013

      1 윤성심 ; 배덕효, "The Applicability Assesment of the Short-term Rainfall Forecasting Using Translation Model" 43 (43): 695-707, 2010

      2 Yoon, Seong Sim, "Status of Urban Flooding Prediction and Response Utilization of Radar Rainfall Information" 57 (57): 25-36, 2024

      3 Nakakita, E., "Short-term Rainfall Prediction Method Using a Volume Scanning Radar and Grid Point Value Data from Numerical Weather Prediction" 101 (101): 26181-26197, 1996

      4 Bowler, N. E., "STEPS : A Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasting Scheme which Merges an Extrapolation Nowcast with Downscaled NWP" 132 (132): 2127-2155, 2006

      5 Reyniers, M., "Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based on Radar Observations: Principles, Algorithms and Operational Systems" Institut Royal Météorologique de Belgique 2008

      6 Collier, C. G., "On the Propagation of Uncertainty in Weather Radar Estimates of Rainfall through Hydrological Models" 16 : 35-40, 2009

      7 Shiiba, M., "Investigation of Short-term Rainfall Prediction Method by a Translation Model" 423-428, 1984

      8 Yu, Wan Sik, "Improvement of Rainfall and Flood Forecasts by Blending Ensemble NWP Rainfall with Radar Prediction Considering Orographic Rainfall" 531 : 494-507, 2015

      9 Mascaro, G., "Implications of Ensemble Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Errors on Distributed Streamflow Forecasting" 11 : 69-86, 2010

      10 Seed, A. W., "Formulation and Evaluation of a Scale Decomposition-based Stochastic Precipitation Nowcast Scheme" 49 (49): 6624-6641, 2013

      11 Gouweleeuw, B. T., "Flood Forecasting Using Medium-range Probabilistic Weather Prediction" 9 : 365-380, 2005

      12 Kim, Seong Sim, "Ensemble Flood Forecasting with Stochastic Radar Image Extrapolation and a Distributed Hydrologic Model" 23 : 597-611, 2009

      13 Ministry of the Interior and Safety, "Disaster Annual Report"

      14 Seo, Hae Yeob, "Current Status of Efforts to Improve the Usability of Rainfall Radar" 53 (53): 35-45, 2020

      15 Bartholmes, J., "Coupling Meteorological and Hydrological Models for Flood Forecasting" 9 : 280-284, 2005

      16 Nakakita, E., "Application of Error-ensemble Prediction Method to a Short-term Rainfall Prediction Model Considering Orographic Rainfall" 351 : 311-316, 2012

      17 Korea Meteorological Administration, "Annual Climatological Report" 2021

      18 Korea Meteorological Administration, "Annual Climatological Report" 2020

      19 Korea Meteorological Administration, "Annual Climatological Report" 2019

      20 Korea Meteorological Administration, "Abnormal Climate Report"

      21 민혜경, "A Study on the Prevention of Inundation Damage and Improvement of Evacuation Training Education in Underground Roadway" 20 (20): 1-25, 2024

      22 Sugimoto, S., "A Stochastic Approach to Short-term Rainfall Prediction Using a Physically Based Conceptual Rainfall Model" 242 : 137-155, 2001

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