인도의 국가 농촌 고용 보장 사업(NREGS)이 농촌 임금에 미친 영향 분석 = An Analysis of Impacts of National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme on Rural Wage Rates in India

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 논문은 국가 농촌 고용 보장 사업(NREGS) 시행 효과 중 가장 기본적인 측면인 임금에 대한 효과를 분석하고자 한다. 이중차분법을 통해 사업 시행 전과 후의 주별 임금 상승률 데이터를 분석하여, 사업 고참여 주와 저참여 주 사이에 임금 상승률 격차가 존재했는지를 검정한다. 그 결과, 남녀를 다 합쳐 10개 직종 중 4개 직종에서 고참여 주의 임금 상승률이 저참여 주의 그것보다 유의하게 높았다는 것이 발견되었다. 이 결과는 주별로 다른 NREGS 참여도를 고려할 때, 고참여 주에서는 저참여 주에 비해 임금 상승률이 높지 않았다고 말할 수 없음을 의미한다. 즉 주별로 따져볼 때 NREGS에 대한 적극적 참여는 농촌의 임금 상승률을 그렇지 않은 경우보다 더 높일 가능성이 있다. 그것은 여성의 경우에 가능성이 더 높다. 이 결과가 인도의 현실에 시사하는 점은 명백하다. NREGS에 낮은 수준으로 참여하는 주들이 농촌 빈곤을 완화하려면 NREGS에 더욱 적극적으로 참여하라는 것이다. 이 논문의 분석 결과는 NREGS의 시행 결과로 임금이 상승했다는 기존 연구들을 지지한다고 볼 수 있다. 그러나 주별 데이터가 아닌 디스트릭트별 데이터를 적용하거나, 주별로 참여도가 확연히 다른 몇 개의 주를 선별해서 비교하는 방식의 연구를 통해 임금 효과를 더 자세히 살펴볼 필요가 있다. 그리고 임금변동이 농촌 노동시장, 나아가 농업 구조에 어떤 영향을 미쳤는지를 분석해서, NREGS의 영향을 종합적으로 파악할 필요가 있다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper tries to analyse the effect of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) on rural wages, the most basic aspect of the influences of the project. Using Difference-in-Difference approach, it tests whether there was a gap of annual growth rates of rural wages between high and low participating states. It finds out that in four out of 10 occupations (including both men and women), annual growth rates of rural wages of high-participating states are significantly higher than those of low-participating states. This means that, given the different levels of NREGS participation from state to state, it is not possible to say that high-participating states do not have higher annual growth rates of rural wages than low-participating states. In other words, active participation in the NREGS by state is likely to increase the growth rates of wages in rural areas. The possibility of wage growth effects might be higher for women. This result suggests that states with low levels of participation in NREGS should be more actively involved in NREGS to alleviate rural poverty. The result of this study can be seen as a support for previous findings for rural wage increase effects of NREGS. However, it is necessary to examine the effects of NREGS on rural wages in more detail by analysing district level data, or by selecting and comparing a few states with significantly different levels of participation. To comprehensively grasp the effects of NREGS, it is also necessary to analyze the ways in which wage increase influences the agricultural structure via its effects on the rural labor market.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 국문요약
• I. 서론
• II. NREGS의 추진 배경과 사업 내용 및 경과
• III. NREGS가 농촌 임금에 미친 영향 분석
• IV. 결론
• 참고문헌
• Abstract

참고문헌 (Reference)

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