2010년 미얀마 총선 분석과 정치변동: 권위주의의 강화? 혼합체제의 탄생? = An Analysis on the 2010 General Elections and Prospect for Political Change in Myanmar: Toward Strengthening Authoritarianism or Birth of Hybrid Regime?

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper aims to both analyze the general elections held in November 2010 and prospect for the direction and characters of the political change in Myanmar. I specifically focus on the winning strategies of the military sponsored political party in the general elections, the winning constituencies of opposition parties as where the military junta did not expect or sure that the opposition parties never win, and power struggle and conflict among the incumbent political elites after the taking off the new government. The military government had intended to perpetuate its political power through making a new quasi-civilian government before holding the general elections, so it dominated that to analyze the result of the general elections is meaningless. After holding the general elections, however, we witnessed that even a few but democratic forces have made inroads into the three parliaments each and key military members in the previous government have retired or transformed their political power to the civilian politicians, comparing rigid political environment that the military junta exclusively had decided to national policies over last twenty years. Therefore, it could be estimated that this general elections are kind of milestone not to lead an immediate political change but laying a new road for political opening or political development. While mobilizing the members of the Union Solidary and Development Party which had been formed by military, civil servants, police and military members, the military government has held extensive advance vote. This is the crucial factor to win the general elections as well as main source for the election fraud. As some democratic candidates from the opposition parties including various regions elected in the large cities or strongholds, it is indirectly proved that the public prefer to the opposition parties. Furthermore, it could be a fundamental base to challenge the ruling party nominees in the future.
On the other side, when the first regular session in the three parliaments has been convened there had elected president, two vice presidents and nominated executives. But it has not been noticed that democratic institutions has introduced and there are still barriers for the opposition members’ activities, so we cannot evaluate that political development is under visible. As it is a possibility triggering power struggle among retired-incumbent military members for power distribution again, we can expect a zero sum game among them to pull political change. Hence, it needs a micro approach when political crisis eventually happens in terms of short period.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이 글의 목적은 2010년 실시된 미얀마 총선을 분석하고, 이를 토대로 체제변동의 방향과 특성을 전망하는 것이다. 주요 분석 대상은 군부 후원의 여당이 총선 승리를 도모하기 위한 전략, 군부정권이 예상치 못하거나 예상외의 결과로서 야당 승리 지역과 그 특징, 신정부 출범에 따른 정치 엘리트 간의 권력 갈등과 경쟁 등이다. 본 총선은 총선 전부터 군부가 유사민간정권을 출범시켜 그들의 정치권력을 항구화하기 위한 의도된 정치적 전략으로 평가된바 총선 자체에 대한 분석이 무의미하다는 평가가 지배적이었다. 그러나 지난 20년 간 군사평의회에 의해 국가정책이 결정되던 경직된 정치 환경과 달리 본 총선 이후 비록 소수지만 민주인사들의 원내 진입이 확정되었고, 주요 군 인사들은 퇴진 또는 민간정치인으로 탈바꿈했다. 결국 금번 총선은 즉각적인 체제변동을 견인할 수 없지만 향후 정치적 개방이나 정치발전을 위한 초석이 될 수 있다고 평가된다. 군부는 연방단결발전당(USDP) 당원, 공무원, 경찰, 군인 등 친군부 세력을 동원하여 광활한 차원의 부재자투표를 실시했고, 이는 USDP의 총선 승리의 결정적 동인이었다. 그러나 지역에 기반을 둔 소수정당을 비롯하여 민주세력들이 대도시 및 지방도시 거점을 접수함으로써 민의가 야당을 향하고 있다는 사실을 간접적으로 증명했고, 나아가 여당과 대결구도를 형성할 수 있는 기반을 마련했다. 한편, 총선 이후 정기국회가 개회되었고 정부통령 선출 및 내각이 구성되었으나 민주적 제도가 도입되지 못했고 야당세력의 약진이 목도되지 않음에 따라 현 수준에서 가시적인 체제변동이 진행 중에 있다고 평가할 수 없다. 다만 전현직 정치엘리트 간의 권력 갈등과 경쟁이 재점화됨에 따라 권력배분과 이에 대한 대결구도가 영합의 결과로 마무리 될 가능성도 상존한다. 따라서 단기적 측면에서 미얀마의 체제변동 방향과 내용은 미시적 접근을 필요로 한다.

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