1914년 7월에 대한 새로운 해석 = 과장 그리고 압박을 통한 협상과 실패

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper suggests incentives to misrepresent as a cause of the World War I Existing studies on the cult of the offensive regarded the myth of preemption by the military among the European states as the main factor of the Great War. Did they consider common interests among states? Was the cult of the offensive the origin of the First World War?
Focusing the relations between Germany and Russia during July 1914, this paper provides a new analysis of outbreak of the First World War. During the month of July, states tried not to keep their pro-war actions, but to participate in the bargaining because they had common interests of peace or avoiding war. Because of different preferences, however, there were the distributional conflicts of stakes. The conflicts were more exacerbated by bargaining strategy of exaggeration. The offensive advantage was one of pressure to another state as a dependent variable in causality with the strategy of exaggeration. That is, existing studies had spurious relationship among variables.
Though the new perspective on cause of the World War I, this article seeks to expand areas of researches on the Great War. This paper also provides implications for the study of the US-Chinese relations. Competition among states can be observed through misrepresentation. In a short period of time, especially, it is necessary to focus that the bargaining strategy of exaggeration can make crisis management impossible.

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