무역수지 결정요인의 영향 추정에 관한 연구

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this study is to estimate the determinant factors of trade balance by using econometrics methods and to induce policy implication. In order to test whether time series data is stationary and the model is fitness or not, we put in operation unit root test, cointegration test and history simulation and ex-post forecasting. And we apply impulse response functions and variance decomposition to the structural model by using error correction model to estimate dynamic short run behavior of variables. The major empirical results of the study are as follows: The effect of domestic business on trade balance is negative and the effect of world business, exchange rate and terms of trade on trade balance is positive and elastic.
The speed of adjustment of trade balance after 1998 is more speedy than the speed of adjustment before 1998. This study applies impulse response function and variance decompositions to get additional information regarding the trade balance to shocks in domestic business, world business, exchange rate and terms of trade factors. The results indicate that the effect of exchange rate and domestic business on variance of trade balance is large, the effect of world business is small in short run but become larger with time. Especially, the effect of exchange rate on variance of trade balance is the largest. We can infer policy suggestion as follows; 1) the improvement of structure of export that induce import 2) the establishment of policy for stable increasement of export 3) stable control of exchange rate 4) high-value added export commodities