EVM을 활용한 공동주택 공사비 예측에 관한 연구 = The Estimation of Construction Costs by Adopting the EVM Method on the Apartment Housing

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

With the contingency results obtained at the early stage of the projects, this study for the control of the contingency recognized as a potential risk in the projects demonstrates the best way to anticipate the EAC by utilizing the regression analysis, and then confirms the adequacy under the case studies. The result of this study is following (1) The performance index can't be accepted through all of the projects because of the existing EAC method's limitation to measure it only at a single point of the projects. (2) This research makes the decision makers get the information as much as they want to collect on the basis of the fact to suggest a range of the fluctuation with the three results such as lower, average, and upper limit, not the single value of the EAC. (3) Each case study, reflecting the similar features in the early state of the projects, passes through the processing of regression analysis, and then the contingency can be estimated. (4) The simultaneous regression equations on both ACWP and BCWP can be developed by collecting the actual data about cost and time of the projects by the time to measure the performance index. (5) Consequently, the reports of the fluctuating range of the EAC are able to be on the desk of the decision-makers after estimating CPI and SPI with the expected ACWP and BCWP.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 "확률개념의 시뮬레이션을 이용한 최종공사비 추정방법" 2004

2 "확률개념의 시뮬레이션을 이용한 최종공사비 추정방법" 2004

3 "최공공사비 예측을 위한 적정 성과지수 선정 및 검증" 2005.02

4 "건설사업 입찰단계의 리스크 분석 모델 개발" 1998

5 "건설공사의 최적 리스크 대응방안 선정을 위한 의사결정 모델" 2002

6 "Probabilistic Model for Cost Contingency" 129 : 2003

7 "Earned Value Project Management" 2000

8 "EVMS에서 최종예상공사비 평가방법에 관한 검증" 2003

9 "Achieving Multiple Project Objectives through Contingency Management" 128 (128): 2002