지식을 이용한 수요예측 지원|RISS 상세보기

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RISS 인기검색어

지식을 이용한 수요예측 지원 = Knowledge-Assisted Adjustment of Statistical Forecasts

한글로보기

https://www.riss.kr/link?id=A30074076

저자

이재규 (한국과학기술원 경영과학과) ; 오상봉 (한국과학기술원 경영과학과) ; 신중철 (한국과학기술원 경영과학과)
발행기관
한국경영과학회
학술지명
한국경영과학회 학술대회논문집
권호사항

Vol.- No.1 [1989]
발행연도
1989
작성언어
Korean
KDC
325.000
자료형태
학술저널
발행기관 URL
http://www.korms.or.kr
수록면

73-78(6쪽)
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다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

To overcome the limitation of time series models which can not incorporate unexpected future events and other qualitative factors, a knowledge-assisted adjustment of statistical forecasts is proposed and a prototype UNIK-FCST is being developed. This paper presents five types of judgmental factors and proposes schemes to identify and evaluate the impacts of historical events by regression and analogy, case-based reasoning based on limited similar cases, and non-monotonic reasoning for the management of multiple judgmental factors. The UNIK-FCST is applied to the demand forecasting of oil products.

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To overcome the limitation of time series models which can not incorporate unexpected future events and other qualitative factors, a knowledge-assisted adjustment of statistical forecasts is proposed and a prototype UNIK-FCST is being developed. This ...

To overcome the limitation of time series models which can not incorporate unexpected future events and other qualitative factors, a knowledge-assisted adjustment of statistical forecasts is proposed and a prototype UNIK-FCST is being developed. This paper presents five types of judgmental factors and proposes schemes to identify and evaluate the impacts of historical events by regression and analogy, case-based reasoning based on limited similar cases, and non-monotonic reasoning for the management of multiple judgmental factors. The UNIK-FCST is applied to the demand forecasting of oil products.