일 단위 SPI와 ROC 분석을 이용한 단기가뭄의 평가 = Evaluation of Short-Term Drought Using Daily Standardized Precipitation Index and ROC Analysis

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is widely applied to evaluate for meteorological droughts. However, the SPI is limited to capture a drought event with a short duration, expecially shorter than one month. In this study, we proposed a daily SPI (DSPI) as a way to overcome the limitation of the monthly SPI for drought monitoring. In order to objectively assess the ability of the drought reproduction of the DSPI, we performed a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis using the quantified drought records from official reports, newspapers, etc. The results of ROC analysis showed that the DSPI has an ability to reproduce short-term drought compared with other indices. It also showed that the main cause of historical droughts was the shortage of rainfall accumulated during the time period less than 90 days compared with the rainfall of normal years.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 김광섭, "관측 자료를 이용한 가뭄지수의 평가" 한국수자원학회 44 (44): 639-652, 2011

2 최대규, "개념적인 토양수분수지 모형을 이용한 Horton 지수의 재논의" 대한토목학회 30 (30): 471-477, 2010

3 김대하, "가뭄심도-지속기간-빈도해석을 통한우리나라 가뭄의 공간분포 분석" 한국수자원학회 39 (39): 745-754, 2006

4 Ahn, J. -H, "The situation and corresponding in the spring drought, 2012" 45 (45): 84-91, 2012

5 McKee T. B, "The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales" American Meteorological Society 179-184, 1993

6 Tae Baek City, "The Drought Basic Books" 2009

7 최광용, "Recent Spatial and Temporal Changes in Means and Extreme Events of Temperature and Precipitation across the Republic of Korea" 대한지리학회 43 (43): 681-700, 2008

8 Yoo, C, "Quantification of drought using a rectangular pulses poisson process model" 355 : 34-48, 2008

9 Byun, H, "Objective quantification of drought severity and duration" 12 : 2747-2756, 1999

10 Yoo, C, "Long term analysis of wet and dry years in Seoul, Korea" 318 : 24-36, 2006

11 Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, "Drought records survey report in the 2001" 2001

12 Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, "Drought management monitoring system reports" 2005

13 Kim, D. -H, "Application of spatial EOF and multivariate time series model for evaluating agricultural drought vulnerability in Korea" 34 (34): 340-350, 2011

14 Fawcett, T, "An introduction to ROC analysis" 27 : 861-874, 2006

15 Mason I, "A model for assessment of weather forecasts" 30 : 291-303, 1982