호텔기업의 원가예측 모형설정과 적용에 관한 연구 = A Study on the Establishing Cost Prediction Model and its Application to the Hotel Business

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study aims to establish a statistical cost prediction model which could be applied to the hotel business by investigating the relationship between the departmental revenue and departmental costs using the statistical cost analysis technique. `Then it surely will help rrcake a clear understanding about the cost behavior patterns of the hotel, suggesting the direction of tine financial decisions for an effective hotel management. For this study, one of the international chain hotel which comprises 324 operational bedrooms was selected. The cost and operating data used in the study were collected from the records over 48 consecutive months covering a period of four financial years of the hotel. And the regression and correlation analysis technique was carried out to analyze the data and estimate the correlationship between the revenue and costs of the room department of the hotel. First of all, the results from the analysis using dununy vaziables to classify the seasonal variation, it becomes apparent that the hotel is being experienced seriously in seasonal variation sucie as on and. off season. Correlationship between the revenue and total expense of the room department presents very high positive correlation and therefore, if in case, the revenue increases, total expense increases at the same time, but the crucial factor that causes the increasing is the payroll expense. Correlationship between the other expense and the revenue presents negative correlation that means therefore, if the payroll among total expense increases, the other expense rather decreases. Total expense prediction model established to predict future costs was statistically very significant at the 95% confidence level and the prediction model for other expense was significant at the 95% confidence level. Therefore, in conclusion, through the regression and correlation analysis model used in the study to analyze correlationship between the departmental revenue and costs, it is clearly identified that the revenue of the department was the key factor in explaining the department costs behavior patterns and the total expense prediction model of the department established could be used as an useful tool for the future costs prediction.