앙상블 방법에 따른 WRF/CMAQ 수치 모의 결과 비교 연구 = 2013년 부산지역 고농도 PM<SUB>10</SUB> 사례

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

To propose an effective ensemble methods in predicting PM<SUB>10</SUB> concentration, six experiments were designed by different ensemble average methods (e.g., non-weighted, single weighted, and cluster weighted methods). The single weighted method was calculated the weighted value using both multiple regression analysis and singular value decomposition and the cluster weighted method was estimated the weighted value based on temperature, relative humidity, and wind component using multiple regression analysis. The effects of ensemble average methods were significantly better in weighted average than non-weight. The results of ensemble experiments using weighted average methods were distinguished according to methods calculating the weighted value. The single weighted average method using multiple regression analysis showed the highest accuracy for hourly PM<SUB>10</SUB> concentration, and the cluster weighted average method based on relative humidity showed the highest accuracy for daily mean PM<SUB>10</SUB> concentration. However, the result of ensemble spread analysis showed better reliability in the single weighted average method than the cluster weighted average method based on relative humidity. Thus, the single weighted average method was the most effective method in this study case.

참고문헌 (Reference)

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