(Working Paper 2024-02) H1 2024 Labor Market Review and H2 Outlook

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The labor market has seen employment growth slow in H1 2024, with the strong post-COVID-19 rebound fading. Employment growth has been steadily declining since H1 2023, reaching 220,000 in H1 2024. The employment rate declined for men, while women experienced a smaller increase in employment. Employment of young people declined due to demographic changes, while employment of people in their 60s remained high. By industry, employment continued to slow down in manufacturing and services, while the slowdown in construction employment intensified.
In 2024, the number of employed people is expected to increase by about 182,000 year-over-year, with the employment rate reaching 62.8% and the unemployment rate reaching 2.9%. Construction employment is expected to remain sluggish in H2, and the impact of a rebound in manufacturing on employment will be limited. Employment in the services sector is also unlikely to expand due to the contraction in private consumption caused by high inflation and interest rates. The government should remain vigilant to macroeconomic downside risks and take tailored employment measures by monitoring employment conditions in sectors where employment is expected to slump, such as construction and wholesale and retail trade.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• I. H1 2024 Labor Market Overview
• II. H1 2024 Labor Market Sectoral Review
• III. Employment Outlook for H2 and Full Year 2024