위험사건에 대한 비현실적 낙관주의: 직접 대 간접 측정방법과 사건 빈도 효과 = Unrealistic Optimism about Risky Events: Direct versus Indirect Measures and Event Frequency Effect

국문 초록 (Abstract)

사람들은 자신이 부정적인 사건을 경험할 가능성은 평균의 다른 사람보다 더 적다고 믿는 경향이 있다. 이런 비현실적 낙관주의는 직접과 간접, 두 가지 방법으로 측정되고 있다. 본 연구는 다양한 위험사건들을 사용하여 직접과 간접방법으로 평가한 비현실적 낙관주의를 비교하기 위한 목적으로 수행되었다. 연구 1은 두 평가방법이 비현실적 낙관주의의 강도에서, 그리고 주요 위험특성들-빈도, 통제, 심각성, 가용성-과 비현실적 낙관주의 사이의 상관관계에서 차이가 있는지를 검증하였다. 직접과 간접방법으로 측정한 비현실적 낙관주의는 강도 뿐 아니라 위험특성들과의 상관관계에서도 유의미한 차이를 보였다. 연구 2는 사건의 빈도가 직접과 간접방법의 비현실적 낙관주의에 미치는 영향에서 차이가 있는지를 실험하였다. 직접방법에서는 빈도가 높은 사건보다 낮은 사건에서 더 강한 비현실적 낙관주의가 발생하는 빈도 효과가 나타나서 기존의 자기중심성 가설이 지지되었다. 또한 간접방법에서는 정반대의 빈도 효과가 발견되었는데, 즉, 빈도가 낮은 사건보다 높은 사건에서 더 강한 비현실적 낙관주의가 발생하는 새로운 결과가 나타났다. 직접과 간접방법의 비현실적 낙관주의에서 일어나는 사건 빈도 효과에 대하여 논의하였다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

People tend to believe that they are less likely than the average person to experience negative events. Such unrealistic optimism has been assessed in two ways, direct and indirect measures. Using various risky events, the present studies compared unrealistic optimism in these two methods. Study 1 investigated whether there is difference between these two methods in the magnitude of unrealistic optimism, and in the correlation between unrealistic optimism and major event characteristics-perceived frequency, controllability, severity, availability. The two measures showed significant difference not only in magnitude of unrealistic optimism but also in the correlation between unrealistic optimism and risk characteristics. Studey 2 tested empirically whether event frequency influenced differently in unrealistic optimism of direct and indirect method. The direct method produced stronger unrealistic optimism when an event absolute frequency is low rather than high, which supported the existing egocentrism account. In the indirect method, however, an opposite effect was found, namely, unrealistic optimism was significantly stronger when an event absolute frequency is high rather than low, which showed novel results. The effects of event frequency in direct and indirect method were discussed.

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