경제위기와 한국의 자본수지: 대외적 변동성충격의 축소를 위한 정책 논의를 중심으로 = Economic Crisis and Balance of Capital Account in Korea: Policy Options to Reduce the External Volatility

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In recent decades, Korean economy has two severe economic crisis with 10 years interval. By each crisis, Korean economy suffered GDP loss and slackened national investment. Balance of payment, foreign exchange rate and interest rates fluctuate extensively. In the literature, the sources and backgrounds of crises are extensively analysed. This paper focused on the external factor of Korean economic crisis, especially on the volatility of trans-board capital movement, which reflects the heavily fluctuating balance of capital account. The results of analysis can be summarized as follows: · Fluctuation of Korean balance of payment goes mostly back to the volatility of capital account, and cross-board capital movement in Korea has pro-cyclical character. · The main sources of Korean capital account fluctuation are foreign portfolio investment account and other investment account in Korea, while the foreign direct investment in Korea is relatively stable. · The main source of volatility in other investment account are loans, the main debtor of which are Korean commercial banks. Korea has a small open economy in the globalized world. Even a small turbulence in the international capital market can affect Korean real and monetary economy seriously. Therefore, the question is raised how to prevent or at least to soften the external shocks. As policy options can be considered follows: · Actively participate at the discussion about, including the introduction of Tobin tax, the restrictive measure of international capital transfer · Restrict the speculative short term capital inflow by raising higher cash reserve ratio · Dampen the pro-cyclicality of foreign capital by limiting foreign share at Korean corporate properties and · Measures against foreign exchange speculation by hieher taxes and/or stricter regultion on The Futures and Options Exchange and on the Non-Deliverable Funds(NDF) as well as the introduction of end-user certification for larger amount of foreign exchange transfer.

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