지방시도별 민간부문주택인허가물량의 가격탄력성 추정 - 지역별 비교와 내생성 제어를 위한 도구변수 적용 - = Estimation of Price Elasticity of Housing Supply by Local City and Province - Regional Comparison and Employment of Instrumental Variables -

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이 연구에서 지방 시도별 주택공급의 주택가격 탄력성을 추정하였다. 이 때 주택공급은 민간부문주택인허가물량이고, 주택가격에 대한 내생성 제어를 위한 도구변수를 발굴하였다. 분석 결과 지방 광역시의 주택공급의 가격탄력성은 2.6~5.8, 지방 도지역은 1.1~11.7로 나타났다. 5개 광역시 중에서는 부산, 대구, 울산의 가격탄력성이 상대적으로 높고, 지방도지역에서는 충남, 전북, 전남, 제주가 다른 지역에 비해 높았다. 이들 지역은 다른 지역에 비해 가격변동에 빠르게 주택 인허가물량이 늘어나거나 줄어든다고 할 수 있다. 생산비용이 상승하면 민간부문주택인허가물량이 감소하는데, 특히 중간재가격지수의 영향력이 건설원자재가격지수보다 더 컸다. 주택건설에 중간재가 많이 사용되고 있고 주택산업의 부침은 여타 중간재 산업에 영향을 미칠 수 있어 안정적인 경제성장을 위해서도 적절한 공급관리가 중요하다는 것을 시사한다. 이 연구가 학술적 측면에서 기여한 점은 주택가격 변수가 가지는 내생성을 제어하기 위해 도구변수를 적용했다는 것이다. 우리나라 주택시장의 특성을 반영하여 전세가격, 신용위험지수 등을 활용하였다. 분석 과정에서 도구변수의 적절성 평가를 수행했고 해당 변수의 유용성을 확인하였다. 주택가격의 내생성 문제는 중요한 학술적 이슈가 되어 왔는데, 이 연구에서 제시한 변수가 향후 과제에서 충분히 활용될 수 있는 가능성을 확인하였다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study focuses on estimating the price elasticity of housing supply concerning private sector housing construction permits. In addition, this study employed instrumental variables to deal with the endogeneity. The empirical analysis of this study showed that the price elasticity of housing supply in local metropolitan cities was 2.6~5.8, while that of housing supply in local provinces was 1.1~11.7. Among the five metropolitan cities, Busan, Daegu, and Ulsan had higher price elasticity than the other two and in local provinces, Chungnam, Jeonbuk, Jeonnam and Jeju were higher than others. In regions with high price elasticity, housing construction permits increase or decrease more rapidly in response to price fluctuations compared to other regions. This study demonstrated that cost of production influenced housing supply and the permitted housing supply was lowered by the increase in the prices of construction raw and intermediate materials. In particular, the impact of the price index for intermediate materials on the permitted housing supply was more significant, which signaled that the materials are largely used for housing construction and the rise and fall of the housing industry could influence many industries of intermediate materials then proper control of housing supply is very significant for stable growth of economy. This study’s distinctive and methodological contribution lied in the identification and application of instrumental variables to control for the endogeneity of housing prices. This study used Jeonse prices and credit risk indices to reflect characteristics of Korean housing markets. This study also evaluated feasibility of instrumental variables in the process of empirical analysis and identified availability of instrumental variables. The endogeneity of housingprices has been important academic issues in order to analyze housing markets and the instrumental variables proposed in the study were found to be broadly applicable for upcoming tasks.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 오지윤, "한국의 주택건설투자의 결정요인 분석" 한국은행 24 (24): 71-100, 2018

2 배영균, "주택공급의 가격탄력성과 주택가격 변동성" 대한부동산학회 30 (30): 67-84, 2012

3 국토교통부, "주택건설실적통계(인허가)"

4 유승동, "전환기의 주택공급: 주택착공을 중심으로" 한국주택학회 26 (26): 37-53, 2018

5 이종원, "계량경제학" 박영사 2001

6 Follain J. R. Jr., "The price elasticity of the long-run supply of new housing construction" 55 (55): 190-199, 1979

7 Malpezzi, S., "The long-run price elasticity of supply of new residential construction in the United States and the United Kingdom" 10 (10): 278-306, 2001

8 Saiz, A., "The geographic determinants of housing supply" 125 (125): 1253-1296, 2010

9 Muth, R., "The Demand for Durable Goods" University of Chicago Press 27-96, 1960

10 Stock, J. H., "Testing for weak instruments in linear IV tegression" NBER 284-, 2002

11 Gitelman, E., "Supply elasticity estimates for the Sydney housing market" 45 (45): 176-190, 2012

12 Paciorek, A., "Supply constraints and housing market dynamics" 77 : 11-26, 2013

13 Kim, K. H., "Supply Elasticity of Housing" 66-74, 2012

14 Oikarinen, E., "Regional variation in the elasticity of supply of housing, and its determinants : The case of a small sparsely populated country" 50 : 18-30, 2015

15 Nakamura, A., "On the relationships among several specification error tests presented by Durbin, Wu, and Hausman" 49 (49): 1583-1588, 1981

16 Mayo, S., "Housing supply under rapid economic growth and varying regulatory stringency : An international comparison" 5 (5): 274-289, 1996

17 Ball, M., "Housing supply price elasticities revisited : Evidence from international, national, local and company data" 19 (19): 255-268, 2010

18 Liu, X., "Housing supply elasticity in local government areas of Sydney" 49 (49): 5441-5461, 2017

19 Glaeser, E. L., "Housing supply and housing bubbles" 64 (64): 198-217, 2008

20 Bramley, G., "Housing Economics and Public Policy" Wiley-Blackwell 193-217, 2002

21 Malpezzi, S., "Getting housing incentives right : A case study of the effects of regulation, taxes, and subsidies on housing supply in Malaysia" 73 : 372-391, 1997

22 Melser, D., "Exploring the many housing elasticities of supply : The case of Australia" 128 : 103817-, 2022