The Reasons for the Impasse Over North Korea’s Nuclear Program

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study tries to find out the reasons for the 26 years of impasse over the North Korean nuclear program. This study focuses on three dimensions. On the North Korean side, the siege mentality with a ‘sense of collective victimhood’ has helped consolidation of its leadership by its clear group membership, but has resulted in an excessive obsession over regime collapse.
Such behavior by North Korea has fostered the ‘securitization paradigm’ on the South Korean and American side. This aggravated mutual distrust. In this case a military option seems to be the only solution. However, the geographical disadvantage of South Korea - a half of its population lives within North Korea’s artillery range, and the hegemonic struggle over the Korean peninsula, especially between the US and China made it hostage for a military option.
The reasons for the diplomatic failure of Washington and Seoul can be attributed to mutual distrust, misperception and wishful-thinking. This study offers a step-by-step approach with a snapback mechanism as a policy option.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 윤덕민, "핵무장을 둘러싼 북한의 전략 평가: 왜 우리는 북한 핵무장을 막는데 실패하고 있는가?" (사) 한국전략문제연구소 26 (26): 7-36, 2019

2 전성훈, "비핵화외교의 실패와 한국의 전략적 대응" (사) 한국전략문제연구소 26 (26): 205-232, 2019

3 고유환, "분단 70년 북한연구 경향에 관한 고찰" 통일연구원 24 (24): 29-54, 2015

4 우정엽, "북한의 불완전 비핵화와 한미 동맹의 문제" (사) 한국전략문제연구소 26 (26): 111-137, 2019

5 정지웅, "북한 붕괴론 논쟁 탐구" 통일평화연구원 9 (9): 162-194, 2017

6 하상식, "미국의 북한 비핵화 정책 실패와 한미공조 과제" 동아시아국제정치학회 19 (19): 1-34, 2016

7 Foreign minister says Seoul, "Washington want to keep momentum of US-North Korea dialogue" The Korea Herald

8 President Lee, "Unification comes like thief" Seoul Shinmun

9 Hecker, Siegfried, "The stage may be set for progress at the Trump-Kim summit"

10 Ha, Sang-sik, "The Two Koreas’ Unifacation Dilemma" Haenam Publication 2016

11 Brooks, David, "The Siege Mentality Problem" The New York Times

12 McInnis, Kathleen, "The North Korean Nuclear Challenge: Military Options and Issues for Congress" CRS 2017

13 Hecker, Siegfried, "The More We Wait, The Worse It Will Get"

14 Eberstadt, Nicholas, "The End of North Korea" American Enterprise Institute Press 1999

15 Sneider, Daniel, "The Dangers of Decoupling in Northeast Asia" 13 (13): 136-139, 2018

16 "The Constitution of the People’s Republic of Korea(Amended on 2016/06/29)(Amended on 2019/04/11)"

17 Sherman, Wendy, "Talking to the North Koreans The" New York Times

18 Chung-in Moon, "THE BUSH DOCTRINE AND THE NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR CRISIS" 극동문제연구소 27 (27): 9-45, 2003

19 Perry, William, "Review of United States Policy Toward North Korea: Findings and Recommendations" Office of the North Korea Policy Coordinator, United States Department of State 1999

20 Lee, Nam-joo, "Resolving Division or Overcoming Division System?" 46 (46): 18-, 2018

21 Foster-Carter, Aiden, "Obama Comes out as an NK Collapsist"

22 Chio, Yong-hwan, "North Korea’s Nuclear Development Strategy and its Prospect" Gyeonggi Research Institute 2010

23 President Park, "North Koreans, Come S. Korea anytimes" JoongAng Daily

24 Wada, Haruki, "North Korea" Dolbegae Publishers 1998

25 "New Facts about the Korean Peninsula that Wikileaks revealed" The Dong-A Daily News

26 DeTrani, Joseph R, "Negotiating With North Korea" 38North

27 Geertz, Clifford, "Negara: The Theatre State in Nineteenth-Century Bali" Princeton University Press 1980

28 Perry, William, "My Journey at the Nuclear Brink" Stanford University Press 2016

29 Wada, Haruki, "Modern History of North Korea" Changbi Publishers 2012

30 Cumings, Bruce, "Mistaske, Once Again" 32 (32): 358-377, 2004

31 Gallucci, Robert L, "Lessons to be Learned from Negotiating with North Korea" 38North

32 Ryoo, Kihl-jae, "Kim Jong-un’s Denuclearization Formula" Shin DongA

33 Rich, Motoko, "In North Korea, Surgical Strike Could Spin Into ‘Worst Kind of Fighting’" The New York Times

34 Kim, Yeon-chul, "In Front of Mirror: the Division System and North Korea’s Change" 43 (43): 42-60, 2015

35 Ministry of Unification, "Important Events from 2009 to Present"

36 Nikitin, Mary Beth, "Focus Congressional Research Service" 2019

37 "Factbox: Previous U.S. comments about Kim Jong-il" Reuters

38 Putnam, Robert D, "Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: the Logic of Two-level Games" 42 (42): 427-460, 1988

39 Smith, Hazel, "Bad, mad, sad or rational actor? Why the ‘securitization’ paradigm makes for poor policy analysis of north Korea" 78 (78): 111-132, 2000

40 Moon, Chung-in, "After Hanoi: Disucssion with Moon Chung-in" 61 (61): 162-228, 2019

41 Cumings, Bruce, "After Hanoi, Remember the Risks of not Engaging North Korea" Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

42 Saeed Ferial, "A Republican Paradigm Shift on North Korea: Prospects and Implications" 38 North

43 신범철, "2018-2019 비핵화 프로세스를 통해 본 북한의 전략적 의도 분석" (사) 한국전략문제연구소 26 (26): 37-76, 2019