우리나라 경기변동의 안정성 분석: 서비스산업의 역할을 중심으로 = Analysis on Korea’s Economic Volatility: Focusing on the Role of the Service Industry

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구는 거시경제적 변동성(macro- economic volatility)이 국가마다 다르게 나타나는 현상의 원인을 산업구조적 차원에서 실증분석을 통해 찾아보려는 시도이다. 특히 우리나라 경제에서 서비스산업이 차지하는 역할에 주목하여, 서비스산업이 경기변동성에 미치는 영향을 국내적인 산업구조 측면과 국가 간 비교를 통해 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 우리나라의 경기변동성은 국가위험도를 중심으로 과거에 비해 크게 개선되었으나 여전히 대내외적 충격의 영향에 노출되어 있으며, 이는 제조업 중심의 산업구조적 특성에 기인한 것으로 판단할 수 있다. 이러한 산업구조하에서는 우리 경제가 대외부문 충격(global sectoral shock)으로 인한 거시경제적 변동에 지속적으로 노출될 수밖에 없다는 것을 의미하며, 구조적으로 나타나는 변동요인을 완화시키기 위해서는 서비스업이 대부분을 차지하고 있는 비교역재 부문이 상대적으로 활성화되어야 함을 시사하고 있다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study discusses the phenomenon behind various forms of macroeconomic volatility faced by countries in terms of industrial structure through empirical analysis, and in the process attempts to validate the role of the service industry. The analysis shows that economic fluctuations in Korea have been significantly improved, mainly due to the country risk. However, Korea is still exposed to the impact of external shocks, which is attributable to the manufacturing-centered industrial structure. Under such industrial structure, it is inevitable for the Korean economy to be continuously exposed to macroeconomic fluctuations caused by global sectoral shocks. So, in order to alleviate business fluctuations, it is necessary to enhance the role of non-tradable sectors that account for most of the service industry.

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