발전연합과 중앙은행의 독립성: 한국, 대만, 태국의 비교분석 = Choice of Development Coalition: A Comparative Analysis of Central Bank Independence in Korea, Thailand, and Taiwan

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Why do some countries in East Asia have independent central banks while others don’t when they used to be called “East Asian model”en bloc? This article explores how and why a specific coalition of governing elites and social interests during economic development affects varying degrees of CBI in South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. I argue there will be a low level of central bank independence 1) if politicians choose capital-intensive industries as a major coalition partner for economic growth(Korean case); or 2) if government elites select financial sector as their major development partner(Thai case). In contrast, there will be a higher probability for central bankers’independent authority 3) if a government chooses a ‘balanced’ economic development strategy, avoiding excessive dependence on two strong social interests(Taiwanese case).

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 논문은 일국 금융통화레짐의 최고 관리자인 중앙은행의 독립성이 각국 별로 상이하게 나타나는 원인을, 정부가 어떤 사회적 세력을 발전연합의 파트너로서 선택하고 정책적 지원을 하는가에서 찾는다. 본 논문의 주장은 1) 정부가 자본집약적 산업가를 경제성장의 주요 파트너로서 선택할 경우 중앙은행을 종속화시켜 낮은 수준의 독립성을 가진다(한국형); 2) 정부가 금융자본에 의존하는 경제성장을 추구할 경우 이들 발전연합은 통화안정과 인플레이션정책에 있어서는 중앙은행의 자율성을 지지하지만 금융자유화가 추진될수록 낮은 수준의 독립성이 초래된다(태국형); 3) 정부가 산업자본이나 금융자본을 적절히 규제하여 균형발전전략을 추진할 경우 높은 수준의 독립적 권위가 가능하다(대만형).

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