외환보유고 구성의 변화와 결정요인 = The Changing Pattern and Determinants of Composition of International Reserves

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

As anxieties are growing over substantial depreciation of the U.S. dollar, hot debates are now emerging on how to reform the current international reserve system. This paper examines what determines the composition of international reserves, with a focus on the U.S. dollar. Our empirical analysis on the period between 1973 and 2008 shows that the dominant share of the U.S. dollar in international reserve holdings can be explained by risk factors such as current account balance, relative size of exchange rate volatility of the U.S. dollar, and the inflation rate. The determinants of reserves of other major currencies such as the Euro, the Japanese Yen, or the British Pound appear to be quite different. Therefore, a decrease in the share of the U.S. dollar does not necessarily lead to emergence of another specific currency. Without a considerable economic size, macroecoomic stability, and international liquidity, it would be difficult for the Euro to surpass the U.S. dollar as leading international reserve currency. In the foreseeable future, the U.S. dollar is likely to remain the key international currency, in spite of the current turmoil. If complete overhaul of the current international reserve system is difficult, the proper target should be a set of changes in global and regional financial architectures that would make the current system work better and move closer to a multi-polar economic order that is more immune to shocks emanating from any one of its component parts.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 Krugman,Paul, "Will there be a dollar crisis" 51 : 437-467, 2007

2 Chinn,Menzie, "Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency" NBER 2005

3 Humpage,Owen F, "Will special drawing rights supplant the dollar"

4 Williamson,John, "Why SDRs Could Rival the Dollar" Peterson Institute 2009

5 Goldberg,Linda S, "Vehicle currency use in international trade" Elsevier 76 (76): 177-192, 2008

6 Chey,Hyoung-kyu, "Theories of International Currencies and the Future of the World Monetary Order" Institute for Monetary and Economic Research, The Bank of Korea 2010

7 Benassy-Quere,Agnes, "The dollar in the turmoil" 23 (23): 427-436, 2009

8 Wooldridge,Philip D, "The changing composition of official reserves" 1-14, 2006

9 Obstfeld,M, "The Trilemma in History:Tradeoffs among Exchange Rates,Monetary Policies,and Capital Mobility" MIT Press 87 (87): 423-438, 2005

10 Rodrik,Dani, "The Social Cost of Foreign Exchange Reserves" National Bureau of Economic Rearch 2006

11 박태호, "The G20: from Seoul to Paris and beyond" 한국국제통상학회 16 (16): 1-42, 2011

12 Cooper,Richard N, "The Future of the Dollar" Peterson Institute for International Economics 2009

13 Bergsten,C.Red, "The Dollar and the Deficits:How Washington Can Prevent the Next Crisis" 88 (88): 20-38, 2009

14 Eichengreen,Barry, "The Dollar Dilemma" 88 (88): 53-68, 2009

15 Truman,Edwin M, "The Case for an International Reserve Diversification Standard" Peterson Institute for International Economics 2006

16 Zhou, Xiaochuan, "Reforming the International Monetary System, People’s Bank of China"

17 Aizenman,Joshua, "International Reserves:Precautionary vs.Mercantilist Views,Theory and Evidence" IMF 2005

18 Triffin,R, "Gold and the Dollar Crisis" Yale University Press 1960

19 Eichengreen,Barry, "Global Imbalances and the Lessons of the Bretton Woods" The MIT Press 2007

20 Richard Clarida, "G7 Current Account Imbalances:Sustainability and Adjustment" University of Chicago Press 285-323, 2007

21 Beck,Thortsen Beck, "Financial Institutions and Markets Across Countries and over Time:Data and Analysis" World Bank 2009