미국 주식시장의 역사적 경험이 중국 주식시장에 주는 시사점 = An Analysis on the Long Term Trend of Shanghai Composite Index in Terms of Historical Experience of Stock Market in USA

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This article analyzes the transitional directions in China’s financial markets compared to the historical and empirical experiences in the U.S. financial market.
Firstly, this article catches the trends during 1890∼2015 in the U.S. financial markets. Applying the capitalization index calculated by the U.S. GDP and the market capitalization, this study examined the alteration on the financial markets considering the interaction between the economic growth and long-term perspective on stock markets. Having the insight about U.S historical trends and its main causes compared to China stock markets, this article predicts the medium and long-term growth on the Shanghai stock index.
This dissertation derives the analysis conclusion by follows: First, there was no certain long-term continuous increase in China’s stock markets that U.S. experienced two times in the past regardless of China’s rapid economic growth and GDP increase. In short, there was no comparable 20-years continuous growth in China’s financial market even though China’s economy was improved steadily and ranked at top 2 in the world.
Second, there is a high potential that China’s GDP will become the U.S GDP level. China’s GDP growth rate is about 2∼3 times greater than that of the U.S.
in current status. It is likely to achieve the optimum level of growth in the future since there are enough rooms to cultivate service industries and domestic demand markets expansion. After this, China will experience decreasing trends on its GDP growth. In 2030, China’s economic size will overtake that of the U.S. In case China GDP increase follows the U.S experiences, there is high probability of the fact that China’s financial markets will follow the U.S. financial market increase trends and its highly correlated market improvements.
Third, it is visible to track that GDP growth trends correlated with the market capitalization, up and down trends with the steady growth at the ends, according to the capitalization index perspective on historical experiences in U.S. Hence, if there is a severe stock bubble occurrence, then the market capitalization will crash toward GDP trend line according to capitalization index having GDP scale as a standard, vice versa. Therefore, this article concludes that China’s market capitalization will be correlated with the GDP trend having up and down variations with the steady growth at the ends.
Fourth, there is a high probability that China’s financial market arrived at the last step of starting continuous long-term growth for its the first era considering China’s financial market variations and upper trend in its GDP growth rate.
However, the U.S long-term continuously growing periods arose with the economically key industries’ production cycles such as manufacturing cars and personal computers. In case of China, it is invisible to catch core techniques and innovations to lead the world markets. Therefore, it is expected that other factors such as the market share enhancement by existing corporations with the steady increase on GDP and the groundbreaking regulations for the stock markets’ improvement will stimulate the long-term continuous growth not comparable to the U.S.

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