광공업 장기균형생산량의 경제적 결정요인 = The Economic Determinants of Steady-state Output in Mining and Manufacturing Sector

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구는 물적자본과 인적자본의 축적으로 Solow 모형의 수준효과 외에 성장효과를 추가적으로 고려한 AK 모형으로 지역별 광공업의 장기균형생산량을 추정하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 소득 상·하위 지역으로 233개 시·군·구를 구분하여 광공업 장기균형생산량을 비교하고, 공간계량모형을 이용하여 인구, 임금, 인구이동 등이 광공업 장기균형생산량에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 저축률과 인적자본을 추가로 고려했을 때의 저축률로 인해 자본 축적이 고려되지 않은 단기균형생산량보다 지역별 광공업 장기균형생산량은 증가되며 지역격차가 완화되는 것으로 분석되었다. 또한 인구·임금 증가, 청년층의 전입, 장년층의 전출로 인해 소득 상위지역의 장기균형생산량은 증가되는 것으로 나타났다. 반면 소득 하위지역에서는 청년층의 전입, 중․장년층의 전출이 장기균형생산량을 증가시키는 요인으로 분석되었다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study presents AK model to consider regional steady-state output of mining and manufacturing sector, which considers growth effect along with level effect of Solow model by capital and human accumulation. With classifying 233 municipal regions into two groups such as high and low income regions, this study compares steady-state output. And spatial econometrics is adopted to analyze determinants of steady-state output as population, wage, and migration. As a results, steady-state output of mining and manufacturing sector was increased and had effects to relieve regional disparity when considered human capital and saving rate to model. As long as population, wage, immigration of the youth, and emigration of the old increases, these help to increase steady-state output in high income group. While emigration of the middle aged helps to increase of steady-state output in low income region.

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