Advances in Research and Forecasting of Tropical Cyclones from 1963-2013

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

A review of progress over the past 50 years in observingand forecasting of tropical cyclones is presented. Tremendous progresshas been made in track forecasting in the past 20 years with theimprovement in numerical model guidance and the use of consensusforecasting, and this has contributed to a number of warning centersnow issuing five-day track forecasts that are as accurate as three-dayforecasts of a decade ago. Techniques are now available to specifythe track forecast uncertainty for assessing the risk of a tropicalcyclone. With the advent of five-day forecasts, a focus on improvedunderstanding of formation has led to two field experiments. Arecent advance has been in extended-range (5-30 days) forecasts oftropical cyclone events (formations and tracks) in the western NorthPacific from the ECMWF 32-day ensemble predictions. This advanceis a contribution to a goal of seamless forecasting from one day to aseason for tropical cyclones. Little progress has been made inintensity forecasting, although the Hurricane Forecast ImprovementProject in the United States and recent field experiments may offersome future advances. Some advances in forecasting tropical cycloneimpacts such as storm surge, surface waves, and precipitation havebeen achieved. Future opportunities for continued advances arepossible such that improved warnings can lead to reductions in lossesof lives and minimizing damages from tropical cyclones.

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