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      KCI등재 SCIE SCOPUS

      Advances in Research and Forecasting of Tropical Cyclones from 1963-2013

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      https://www.riss.kr/link?id=A103793870

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      다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

      A review of progress over the past 50 years in observingand forecasting of tropical cyclones is presented. Tremendous progresshas been made in track forecasting in the past 20 years with theimprovement in numerical model guidance and the use of consen...

      A review of progress over the past 50 years in observingand forecasting of tropical cyclones is presented. Tremendous progresshas been made in track forecasting in the past 20 years with theimprovement in numerical model guidance and the use of consensusforecasting, and this has contributed to a number of warning centersnow issuing five-day track forecasts that are as accurate as three-dayforecasts of a decade ago. Techniques are now available to specifythe track forecast uncertainty for assessing the risk of a tropicalcyclone. With the advent of five-day forecasts, a focus on improvedunderstanding of formation has led to two field experiments. Arecent advance has been in extended-range (5-30 days) forecasts oftropical cyclone events (formations and tracks) in the western NorthPacific from the ECMWF 32-day ensemble predictions. This advanceis a contribution to a goal of seamless forecasting from one day to aseason for tropical cyclones. Little progress has been made inintensity forecasting, although the Hurricane Forecast ImprovementProject in the United States and recent field experiments may offersome future advances. Some advances in forecasting tropical cycloneimpacts such as storm surge, surface waves, and precipitation havebeen achieved. Future opportunities for continued advances arepossible such that improved warnings can lead to reductions in lossesof lives and minimizing damages from tropical cyclones.

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      참고문헌 (Reference)

      1 Frank, W. M, "The role of tropical waves in tropical cyclogenesis" 134 : 2397-2417, 2006

      2 Chou, K.-H., "The impact of dropwindsondes on typhoon track forecasts in DOTSTAR and T-PARC" 139 : 1728-1743, 2011

      3 Montgomery, M. T, "The Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) experiment" 93 : 153-172, 2012

      4 Vitart, A, "Subseasonal to seasonal prediction project: Bridging the gap between weather and climate" 61 : 23-28, 2012

      5 Dube, S. K, "Storm surge modeling and applications in coastal areas. Chap. 12" World Scientific Publishing Company 363-408, 2010

      6 Fiorino, M., "Some aspects of vortex structure related to tropical cyclone motion" 46 : 975-990, 1989

      7 Bell, M. M., "Sheared deep vertical convection in pre-depression Hagupit during TCS-08" 37 : L06802-, 2010

      8 Nagata, K, "Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting by the Japan Meteorological Agency" (13) : 37-50, 2011

      9 Goerss, J. S, "Prediction of consensus tropical cyclone track forecast error" 135 : 1985-1993, 2007

      10 Russell L. Elsberry, "Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Events on Intraseasonal Timescales with the ECMWF Monthly Forecast Model" 한국기상학회 46 (46): 135-153, 2010

      1 Frank, W. M, "The role of tropical waves in tropical cyclogenesis" 134 : 2397-2417, 2006

      2 Chou, K.-H., "The impact of dropwindsondes on typhoon track forecasts in DOTSTAR and T-PARC" 139 : 1728-1743, 2011

      3 Montgomery, M. T, "The Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) experiment" 93 : 153-172, 2012

      4 Vitart, A, "Subseasonal to seasonal prediction project: Bridging the gap between weather and climate" 61 : 23-28, 2012

      5 Dube, S. K, "Storm surge modeling and applications in coastal areas. Chap. 12" World Scientific Publishing Company 363-408, 2010

      6 Fiorino, M., "Some aspects of vortex structure related to tropical cyclone motion" 46 : 975-990, 1989

      7 Bell, M. M., "Sheared deep vertical convection in pre-depression Hagupit during TCS-08" 37 : L06802-, 2010

      8 Nagata, K, "Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting by the Japan Meteorological Agency" (13) : 37-50, 2011

      9 Goerss, J. S, "Prediction of consensus tropical cyclone track forecast error" 135 : 1985-1993, 2007

      10 Russell L. Elsberry, "Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Events on Intraseasonal Timescales with the ECMWF Monthly Forecast Model" 한국기상학회 46 (46): 135-153, 2010

      11 Tsai, H.-C, "Opportunities and challenges for extended-range predictions of tropical cyclone impacts on hydrological predictions" 025-, 2013

      12 Hsiao-Chung Tsai, "Objective Verifications and False Alarm Analyses of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Event Forecasts by the ECMWF 32-Day Ensemble" 한국기상학회 49 (49): 409-420, 2013

      13 Vitart, F, "New tropical cyclone products on the web" 130 : 17-23, 2012

      14 Hasegawa, H, "JMA’s storm surge prediction for WMO Storm Surge Watch Scheme (SSWS)" (14) : 12-, 2012

      15 DeMaria, "Is tropical cyclone intensity guidance improving?" 2013

      16 Elsberry, R. L, "International experiments to study tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific" 71 : 1305-1316, 1990

      17 Shay, L. K, "Global Perspectives in Tropical Cyclones" World Scientific Publishing Company 93-132, 2010

      18 Hansen, J. A., "GPCE-AX: An anisotropic extension to the Goerss predicted consensus error in tropical cyclone track forecasts" 26 : 416-422, 2011

      19 Russell L. Elsberry, "Evaluations of Global Model Early Track and Formation Predictions During the Combined TCS08 and T-PARC Field Experiment" 한국기상학회 45 (45): 357-373, 2009

      20 Sampson, C. R, "Evaluation of wave forecasts consistent with tropical cyclone warning center wind forecasts" 2013

      21 Russell L. Elsberry, "Evaluation of the ECMWF 32-day Ensemble Predictions during 2009 Season of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Events on Intraseasonal Timescales" 한국기상학회 47 (47): 305-318, 2011

      22 Elsberry, "Advances in tropical cyclone motion prediction and recommendations for the future" 56 : 131-135, 2007

      23 DeMaria, M., "A new method for estimating tropical wind speed probabilities" 24 : 1573-1591, 2009

      24 Goerss, "A history of western North Pacific tropical cyclone track forecast skill" 19 : 633-638, 2004

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      학술지 이력

      학술지 이력
      연월일 이력구분 이력상세 등재구분
      2023 평가예정 해외DB학술지평가 신청대상 (해외등재 학술지 평가)
      2020-11-03 학술지명변경 한글명 : 한국기상학회지 -> Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences KCI등재
      2020-01-01 평가 등재학술지 유지 (해외등재 학술지 평가) KCI등재
      2011-01-01 평가 등재학술지 유지 (등재유지) KCI등재
      2009-01-01 평가 등재학술지 유지 (등재유지) KCI등재
      2008-02-05 학술지명변경 외국어명 : 미등록 -> Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences KCI등재
      2007-08-13 학술지명변경 한글명 : 한국기상학회지 -> Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society(한국기상학회지) KCI등재
      2007-01-01 평가 등재학술지 유지 (등재유지) KCI등재
      2005-01-01 평가 등재학술지 유지 (등재유지) KCI등재
      2002-01-01 평가 등재학술지 선정 (등재후보2차) KCI등재
      1999-07-01 평가 등재후보학술지 선정 (신규평가) KCI등재후보
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      학술지 인용정보

      학술지 인용정보
      기준연도 WOS-KCI 통합IF(2년) KCIF(2년) KCIF(3년)
      2016 1.81 0.51 1.31
      KCIF(4년) KCIF(5년) 중심성지수(3년) 즉시성지수
      1.11 0.95 0.771 0.32
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