Forecasting interest rates

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CONTENTS
• Preface = xi
• Acknowledgments = xvii
• 1. What Are Interest Rates? = 1
• Practical Aspects of Interest Rates = 1
• Goals of This Book = 5
• 2. Yields and Interest Rates = 11
• Introduction = 11
• Defining Interest = 14
• Defining Rate = 14
• DefiningYield = 15
• Definition of Interest Rates : Putting It All Together = 16
• 3. Finding Interest Rate Information Quickly = 19
• The Wall Street Journal = 21
• The New York Times = 24
• Investor's Business Daily = 29
• Barron's = 30
• Summary = 33
• 4. Interest Rates and Economic Indicators = 35
• Overview = 35
• How We Will Evaluate the Economic Indicators = 37
• National Association of Purchasing Management Index = 38
• Construction Spending = 40
• U.S. Unemployment Rate and Employment Numbers = 41
• New Unemployment Claims = 44
• Index of Economic Indicators = 46
• Durable Goods orders = 49
• Factory Orders = 51
• Housing Construction = 54
• New Home Sales = 57
• Retail Sales = 58
• Automobile Sales = 59
• Industrial Production = 60
• Capacity Utilization = 62
• Inventories-to-Sales Ratio = 63
• Consumer Confidence Indices = 65
• Gross Domestic Product = 66
• Federal Reserve Board "Beige" or "Tan" Book = 69
• Summary = 69
• 5. Intertst Rates and Inflation Factors = 73
• The Producer Price Index = 74
• The Consumer Price Index = 77
• Personal Income and Consumer Spending = 79
• Consumer Borrowing or Credit = 81
• The Commodity Research Bureau = 82
• The Employment Cost Index = 82
• Gold = 84
• Oil = 85
• Summary = 87
• 6. Interest Rates and Monetary Factors = 89
• What Is the Federal Reserve Board? = 90
• What Is Money? = 91
• Controlling the Money Supply = 94
• The Federal Funds Rate = 95
• The Discount Rate 98
• The. Prime Rate = 100
• The Federal Reserve Board's Power = 100
• Conclusion = 101
• 7. Interest Rates and Fiscal Factors = 103
• The Federal Budget Deficit = 103
• The U.S. Budget = 105
• The Tax Issue = 108
• 8. Interest Rates and Global Factors : The Trade Deficit = 111
• Global Issues = 111
• The U.S. Trade Deficit = 113
• Origins of the U.S. Trade Deflcit = 115
• Interest Rates and the U.S. Trade Deficit = 118
• 9. Interest Rates and Global Factors : The Dollar, Foreign Interest Rates, and International Policy Coordination = 121
• A Brief History of the Dollar in the 1980s = 121
• Some Factors That Boost the Dollar = 122
• The Factors That Make the Dollar Decline = 123
• What Happens When the Dollar Falls? = 123
• Foreign Interest Rates = 125
• International Policy Coordination = 126
• A Brief Review of International Policy Coordination in the 1980s = 126
• International Policy Coordination and the Dollar = 127
• Some Issues Concerning Policy Coordination = 127
• 10. Interest Rates, Psychologjr, and Politics = 129
• How Psychological Factors Influence Interest Rates = 129
• How Political Factors Influence Interest Rates = 131
• Summary = 133
• 11. Setting Up the Interest Rate Charts = 135
• Introduction = 135
• Interest Rate Notebook = 136
• Weekly Interest Rate Chart = 137
• The Monthly Interest Rate Chart = 155
• The Quarterly Interest Rate Chart = 156
• 12. Charting Interest Rate Trends = 159
• The Weekly Interest Rate Chart = 160
• The Monthly Interest Rate Chart = 186
• The Quarterly Interest Rate Chart-Second Quarter 1991 = 191
• Summary = 192
• 13. Conclusion = 195
• Glossary = 201
• Selected Bibliography = 207
• Index = 209