중국의 패권경쟁 가능성과 미국의 정책대응

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Despite much critics about Chinese socio-economic problems and disparities, the ruling political system over its whole society is still regarded as very efficient and powerful. With its political power, it is generally estimated that China would eventually become a hegemonic power within a few decades. The Chinese governments focus on sefety-first economic policies would also work as a safety valve for her continued rise. One may recall that after the global financial crisis in 2008, the so-called American declinism and China-bashing became increasingly popular in the U.S., just like the revisionism toward Japan in the 1980s. However, the rise of China is much more apparent and special in terms of its widely spread arguments among both realists and liberals, predicting pessimism or optimism, respectively. In addition, Obama administrations policy response is more a realistic primacist than Bush administrations pragmatic policies.
If U.S. continues to militarily contain China on the basis of realistic primacism, China would also react aggressively as seen in the case of embargo of rare earth to Japan. Koreas foreign policy would also face a very difficult position. It would be awkward to seek a power balance as well as to maintain a status-quo under the upcoming Chinese hegemony in the region. Yet, Korea cannot bandwagon onto China and cut its military alliance with U.S. because the security environment is still unstable in East Asia. The options for Korea would then to accept Chinas rise to power and try to set a new lines of pragmatic and cooperative security and economic orders in East Asia.

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