이익지속성이 재무분석가의 투자추천의견 및 미래주가예측오차와 정확성에 미치는 영향 = Effect of Earnings Persistency on Analysts' Stock Recommendations, Stock Price Forecasts Error and Accuracy

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구는 이익예측치보다 투자자들의 투자의사결정에 보다 직접적인 판단기준을 제공하는 재무분석가의 투자추천의견과 미래주가예측치가 이익지속성에 의해 차이가 나타나는지를 분석하였다.
2000년부터 2002년까지 국내 증권사 홈페이지에 공표된 12,023개의 분석보고서를 사용하여 분석한 결과 이익지속성이 높은 기업의 경우 긍정적인 투자추천의견의 제시빈도가 높고, 부정적 투자추천의견의 제시빈도는 낮아 재무분석가는 이익지속성이 높으면 낮은 경우 보다 긍정적인 평가를 하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 이익지속성이 높은 경우 낮은 경우에 비해 실제주가수준은 높지만 재무분석가의 주가예측수익률은 낮아 재무분석가는 이익지속성이 높으면 실제주가에 비해 상대적으로 낮은 미래주가예측치를 제시하고 있음을 보인다. 그러나 이익지속성이 높으면 미래주가예측오차는 작고, 미래주가예측정확성은 높게 나타나 투자자들이 재무분석가의 미래주가예측치를 투자의사결정에 이용함에 있어 이익지속성을 고려할 필요가 있음을 의미한다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study investigates whether earnings persistency makes analysts issue different stock recommendations and future stock prices, that are more useful and easier to use than earnings forecasts for investors. Previous studies document that forecasts for firms with higher earnings persistency are more accurate than those for firms with low earnings persistency. Because earnings forecasts are used as input for stock recommendations and stock price forecasts, earnings persistency may affect the characteristics of analysts' forecasts. If analysts know that earnings forecasts are more accurate because of the earnings persistency, they will issue more favorable stock recommendations and more accurate future stock prices.
To address the research questions, we download 21,931 analysts reports published on the Korean security companies' internet homepage and extract earnings forecasts, stock recommendations, and future stock prices. We extract data required for the calculation of earnings persistency and other control variables that affect the characteristics of earnings forecasts from KIS-FAS database. Final samples used in this analysis are 12,023 firm-year observations. We find that analysts are more likely to issue favorable stock recommendations, and less likely to issue unfavorable stock recommendations for firms with high earnings persistency, while they forecast lower stock prices for firms with low earnings persistency. This result implies that analysts consider the implication of earnings persistency on earnings forecasts when they issue stock recommendations and future stock prices based on earnings forecasts they make. Also we find that future stock price errors are smaller and stock price forecasts are more accurate for firms with high earnings persistency. Overall, the results of this paper imply that investors should use earnings persistency information when they use future stock price in their decision making, and earnings persistence should be incorporated in analysts' stock recommendations and stock price forecasts research.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 서론
• Ⅱ. 선행연구의 검토 및 연구질문
• Ⅲ. 연구방법
• Ⅳ. 표본의 선정
• Ⅴ. 실증분석결과

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