기후 변화에 따른 제주도 표선 유역의 함양률 및 수위변화 예측 = Impact of Climate Change on the Groundwater Recharge and Groundwater Level Variations in Pyoseon Watershed of Jeju Island, Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Global climate change could have an impact on hydrological process of a watershed and result in problems with future water supply by influencing the recharge process into the aquifer. This study aims to assess the change of groundwater recharge rate by climate change and to predict the sustainability of groundwater resource in Pyoseon watershed, Jeju Island. For the prediction, the groundwater recharge rate of the study area was estimated based on two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5) by using the Soil Water Balance (SWB) computer code. The calculated groundwater recharge rate was used for groundwater flow simulation and the change of groundwater level according to the climate change was predicted using a numerical simulation program (FEFLOW 6.1). The average recharge rate from 2020 to 2100 was predicted to decrease by 10~12% compared to the current situation (1990~2015) while the evapotranspiration and the direct runoff rate would increase at both climate scenarios. The decrease in groundwater recharge rate due to the climate change results in the decline of groundwater level. In some monitoring wells, the predicted mean groundwater level at the year of the lowest water level was estimated to be lower by 60~70 m than the current situation. The model also predicted that temporal fluctuation of groundwater recharge, runoff and evapotranspiration would become more severe as a result of climate change, making the sustainable management of water resource more challenging in the future. Our study results demonstrate that the future availability of water resources highly depends on climate change. Thus, intensive studies on climate changes and water resources should be performed based on the sufficient data, advanced climate change scenarios, and improved modeling methodology.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 안승섭, "토지피복 상태와 강수조건을 고려한 장기 지하수함양량 추정(서귀포시 지역을 중심으로)" 한국지반환경공학회 13 (13): 39-47, 2012

2 구민호, "지하수위 변동법에 의한 지하수 함양량 산정의 수치해석적 분석" 대한지질학회 38 (38): 407-420, 2002

3 김봉상, "제주도 화산암의 광역적 수리지질과 지하수 분포 특성" 대한지질학회 47 (47): 263-276, 2011

4 송성호, "제주도 표선유역의 물수지 평가를 위한 지하수 유동 모델링" 한국환경과학회 24 (24): 495-504, 2015

5 최현미, "제주도 수리자료에 대한 시계열 분석 및 지하수 함양률 추정 연구" 대한지질공학회 21 (21): 337-348, 2011

6 이봉주, "제주 동부지역의 수리확산계수와 지하수 도관 유동 가능성" 대한지질학회 42 (42): 439-454, 2006

7 우남칠, "기후변화와 국내 지하수자원의 지속가능성 - 다음 10년을 위해서 ·" 한국지하수토양환경학회 18 (18): 1-5, 2013

8 안소라, "기후변화가 경안천 유역의 수문요소에 미치는 영향 평가" 한국수자원학회 42 (42): 33-50, 2009

9 이명진, "기후변화 연동 지하수 함양량 산정 모델 개발 및 정책방향 고찰" 한국환경정책·평가연구원 9 (9): 157-184, 2010

10 "WAMIS (Water Management Information System)"

11 Mair, A., "Temporal and spatial variability of groundwater recharge of Jeju Island, Korea" 501 (501): 213-226, 2013

12 Westenbroek, S.M., "SWB-A Modified Thornthwaite-Mather Soil-Water-Balance Code for Estimating Groundwater Recharge"

13 이지민, "SWAT 모형과 BFlow를 이용한 지하수 함양, 기저유출의 시공간적 변화 분석" 한국물환경학회 30 (30): 549-558, 2014

14 Hargreaves, G.H., "Reference crop evapotranspiration from temperature" 1 (1): 96-99, 1985

15 Allen, R.G., "Rational use of the FAO Blaney-Criddle formula" 122 (122): 139-155, 1986

16 Eckhardt, K., "Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and streamflow in a central European low mountain rage" 284 (284): 244-252, 2003

17 Scibek, J., "Modeled impacts of predicted climate change on recharge and groundwater levels" 42 : W11405-, 2006

18 Goderniaux, P., "Large scale surface-subsurface hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on groundwater reserves" 373 (373): 122-138, 2009

19 Jeju Special Self-Governing Province, "Jeju Special Self-Governing Province Water Resources Management"

20 Thornthwaite, C.W., "Instructions and tables for computing potential evapotranspiration and the water balance: Centerton, N.J." 10 (10): 185-311, 1957

21 Diersch, H.J.G, "FEFLOW 6 - User's Manual"

22 Turc, L., "Evaluation des besoins en eau d'irrigation, évapotranspiration potentielle, formule climatique simlifée et mise à jour (In French; original unseen)" 12 (12): 13-49, 1961

23 Moon, S.K., "Estimation of groundwater recharge ratio using cumulative precipitation and water-level change, Korea" 6 (6): 33-43, 2001

24 Jensen, M.E., "Estimating evapotranspiration from solar radiation" 89 : 15-41, 1963

25 Blaney, H.F., "Determining consumptive use for water developments" 1-34, 1966

26 KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration), "Climate Data (1990~2015)"

27 IPCC, "Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" IPCC 151-, 2014

28 Koh, G.W., "Characteristics of the groundwater and hydrogeologic implication of the Seoquipo formation in Cheju Island" Busan National University 1997

29 MOLIT, "Basic groundwater management plan of Korea (2012~2021)"

30 KIGAM, "Assessment of sustainable groundwater availability and development of high value added groundwater in Jeju Island"

31 Raposo, J.R., "Assessing the impact of future climate change on groundwater recharge in Galicia-Costa, Spain" 21 (21): 459-479, 2013

32 Chung, I.M., "Assessing distributed groundwater recharge rate using integrated surface watergroundwater modelling: application to Mihocheon watershed" 18 (18): 1253-1264, 2010

33 KIGAM, "An Assessment of water Development in Jeju"