기후변화에 따른 생태계 교란 식물 가시상추와 미국쑥부쟁이 잠재 분포 예측 = Potential distribution of invasive alien species Lactuca scariola L. and Aster pilosus Willd in Korea

국문 초록 (Abstract)

외래생물은 교류 증가와 희귀 동식물 수요로 인해 유입되며, 일부는 생태계를 교란하고 생물다양성을 감소시킬 우려가 있다. 본 연구는 RCP 4.5와 8.5 기후변화 시나리오를 바탕으로 가시상추와 미국쑥부쟁이의 서식 환경을 분석하여 잠재 서식지를 예측하였다. 2016년부터 2021년까지 수행된 외래 생물 전국 서식 실태 조사 자료를 활용하여 가시상추와 미국쑥부쟁이의 출현 데이터를 수집하고, 기상청에서 제공한 자료를 기반으로 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 생물기후 변수를 생성하였다. 생물기후 변수, 고도 변수, 출현 데이터를 기반으로 MaxEnt 모형을 구축한 결과, 모든 모형의 AUC 값이 0.8 이상으로 높은 설명력을 가진 것으로 나타났으며, 가시상추와 미국쑥부쟁이 모두 고도가 낮은 곳에서 분포할 확률이 큰 것으로 확인되었다. 또한, 서식 지역을 예측한 결과, RCP 4.5보다 RCP 8.5 시나리오에서 가시상추와 미국쑥부쟁이 모두 한반도에 더 넓게 분포하는 것으로 나타났다. 가시상추는 2030년대와 2050년대에 수도권, 서해안, 경상도 등 경작 지역에 주로 분포할 것으로 예상되었으며, 미국쑥부쟁이는 경기 지역, 전라도 해안, 남해안 지역에 주로 분포할 것으로 확인되었다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Invasive species have been introduced through increased global exchange and demand for rare flora and fauna, posing risks of disrupting ecosystems and reducing biodiversity. This study analyzes the habitat conditions of invasive species \textit{Lactuca scariola L.} and \textit{Aster pilosus Willd} using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenario to predict their potential distribution. Using Nationwide Survey of Non-native Species in Korea from 2016 to 2021, occurrence data for both species were collected. Bioclimatic variables based on data from the Korea Meteorological Administration were generated according to the climate change scenario. Using these bioclimatic variables, altitude data, and occurrence data, MaxEnt models were built, and the results showed that all models had high explanatory power with AUC values above 0.8. Both species are likely to be distributed in low-altitude areas. Additionally, potential distributions indicated that both species would have a wider distribution across Korea under the RCP 8.5 scenario compared to the RCP 4.5 scenario. \textit{Lactuca scariola L.} is expected to be primarily distributed in cultivated areas, including the Seoul metropolitan area, the west coast, and Gyeongsang Province in the 2030s and 2050s, while \textit{Aster pilosus Willd} is expected to be mainly distributed in Gyeonggi Province, the Jeolla coastal area, and the southern coast.

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