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    상황적 억제모델에 의거한 핵무기 사용 가능성 분석: 미 트루만 행정부의 사례를 중심으로 = An Analysis of the Possibility of the Use of Nuclear Weapons based on Situational Deterrence Model : The Case of the Truman Administration in World War II.

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    https://www.riss.kr/link?id=A99645623

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    다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract) kakao i 다국어 번역

    This thesis examines the Truman administration`s decision on nuclear weapons in World War II. In order to explain why the Truman administration used nuclear weapons in World War II, this thesis establishes an alternative framework-“situational deterrence model”. Unlike rational choice model based on cost-benefit calculations and cognitive choice model founded on various cognitive factors, the situational deterrence model posits that the Truman administration made decisions based on “the losses of war” and “the risks of nuclear weapons”.The Truman administration recognized the risks of nuclear weapons such as immorality, ineffectiveness, the possibility of nuclear arms race and nuclear war. However, because the administration perceived that the losses of war were bigger than the risks of nuclear weapons, the administration`s final decision was to use nuclear weapons.
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    This thesis examines the Truman administration`s decision on nuclear weapons in World War II. In order to explain why the Truman administration used nuclear weapons in World War II, this thesis establishes an alternative framework-“situational deter...

    This thesis examines the Truman administration`s decision on nuclear weapons in World War II. In order to explain why the Truman administration used nuclear weapons in World War II, this thesis establishes an alternative framework-“situational deterrence model”. Unlike rational choice model based on cost-benefit calculations and cognitive choice model founded on various cognitive factors, the situational deterrence model posits that the Truman administration made decisions based on “the losses of war” and “the risks of nuclear weapons”.The Truman administration recognized the risks of nuclear weapons such as immorality, ineffectiveness, the possibility of nuclear arms race and nuclear war. However, because the administration perceived that the losses of war were bigger than the risks of nuclear weapons, the administration`s final decision was to use nuclear weapons.

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    참고문헌 (Reference)

    1 한용섭, "핵무기 없는 세계: 이상과 현실" 50 (50): 2010

    2 최종원, "합리성과 정책연구" 4 (4): 1995

    3 국방군사연구소, "한국전쟁 자료총서" 국방군사연구 1996

    4 포터, "태평양 전쟁, 맥아더, 그러나 니미츠" 신서원 1998

    5 스티븐 워커, "카운트다운 히로시마" 황금가지 2005

    6 존 키건, "제2차세계대전사" 청어람미디어 2007

    7 폴 콜리어, "제2차 세계대전: 탐욕의 끝, 사상 최악의 전쟁" 플래닛 미디어 2008

    8 박동철, "정보분석의 혁신" 한울 2010

    9 윈스턴 처칠, "윈스턴처칠회고록 8" 박문사 1975

    10 리처드 로즈, "원자폭탄 만들기 2" 사이언스북스 2003

    1 한용섭, "핵무기 없는 세계: 이상과 현실" 50 (50): 2010

    2 최종원, "합리성과 정책연구" 4 (4): 1995

    3 국방군사연구소, "한국전쟁 자료총서" 국방군사연구 1996

    4 포터, "태평양 전쟁, 맥아더, 그러나 니미츠" 신서원 1998

    5 스티븐 워커, "카운트다운 히로시마" 황금가지 2005

    6 존 키건, "제2차세계대전사" 청어람미디어 2007

    7 폴 콜리어, "제2차 세계대전: 탐욕의 끝, 사상 최악의 전쟁" 플래닛 미디어 2008

    8 박동철, "정보분석의 혁신" 한울 2010

    9 윈스턴 처칠, "윈스턴처칠회고록 8" 박문사 1975

    10 리처드 로즈, "원자폭탄 만들기 2" 사이언스북스 2003

    11 노나카 이쿠지로, "왜 일본 제국은 실패하였는가?" 주영사 2009

    12 임수호, "북한의 대미 실존적 억지-강제의 이론적 기반" 한국전략문제연구소 14 (14): 123-165, 2007

    13 제임스 E. 도거티, "미국외교 정책사: 루스벨트에서 레이건까지" 한울 2008

    14 권용립, "미국 외교의 역사" 삼인 2010

    15 "동아일보"

    16 다이애나 프레스턴, "그 빗나간 열정의 역사 : 마리 퀴리에서 히로시마까지" 뿌리와 이파리 2006

    17 김태현, "결정의 엣센스: 쿠바 미사일 사태와 세계핵전쟁의 위기" 모음북스 2005

    18 Truman, Harry S, "Year of Decisions" The New American Library 1955

    19 Arnold, Henry Harley, "Winged Warfare" Harper & Brothers 1941

    20 Mearsheimer, John J., "Why We Will Soon Miss the Cold War" 266 (266): 1990

    21 Eden, Lynn, "Whole World on Fire: Organizations, Knowledge, and Nuclear Weapons Devastation" Cornell University Press 2004

    22 "War Department press release, Statement of the Secretary of War"

    23 Janis, Irving Lester, "Victims of Groupthink : A Psychological Study of Foreign-Policy Decisions and Fiascoes" Houghton Mifflin 1972

    24 "U.S. Strategic Bombing Survey, The Effects of the Atomic Bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki"

    25 "U.S. Objectives with Respect to the USSR to counter Soviet Threats to U.S. Security"

    26 Ederington, L. Benjamin, "Turning Point: The Gulf War and US Military Strategy" Westview Press

    27 Vertzberger, Yaacov, "The World in Their Minds: Information Processing, Cognitive, and Perception in Foreign Policy Decisionmaking" Stanford University Press 1990

    28 Wilson, Ward, "The Winning Weapon?; Rethinking Nuclear Weapons in Light of Hirosima" 31 (31): 2007

    29 "The U.S. Jonit Chiefs of Staff"

    30 Keegan, John, "The Second World War" Penguin Books 1990

    31 Bernstein, Barton J., "The Quest for Security: American Foreign Policy and International Control of Atomic Energy, 1942-1946" 60 (60): 1974

    32 Lieber, Keir A., "The Nukes We Need" 88 (88): 2009

    33 Tannenwald, Nina, "The Nuclear Taboo: The United States and the Non-Use of Nuclear Weapons Since 1945" Cambridge University Press 2007

    34 Hewlett, Richard G., "The New World, 1939/1946, v. 1: A history of the United States Atomic Energy Commission" Pennsylvania State University Press 1962

    35 Millis, James Walter, "The Forrestal Diaries" Viking 1951

    36 Mueller, John, "The Essential Irrelevance of Nuclear Weapons: Stability in the Postwar World" 13 (13): 1988

    37 Stimson, Henry L., "The Decision to Use the Atomic Bomb"

    38 Nuechterlein, Donald E., "The Concept of ‘National Interest’: A Time For New Approaches" 23 (23): 1979

    39 McCloy, John J., "The Challenge to American foreign policy" Harvard University Press 1953

    40 Heuser, Bentrice, "The Bomb Nuclear: Weapons in their Historical Strategic and Ethical Context" Longman 2000

    41 Wesley Frank, Carven, "The Army Air Forces in World War II, Vol. 5, The Pacific: Matterhorn to Nagasaki, June 1944 to August 1945" University of Chicago Press 1953

    42 "Tentative Over-All Strategic Concept and Estimate of Initial Operations-Short Title 'PINCHER.'"

    43 Eisenhardt, Kathleen M., "Strategic Decision Making" 13 : 1992

    44 Farnham, Barbara, "Roosevelt and the Munich Crisis: Insights from Prospect Theory" 13 (13): 1992

    45 Mueller, John, "Retreat from Doomsday: The Obsolescence of Major War" Basic Books 1989

    46 "Remarks at the Pemiscot County Fair, Caruthersville, Missouri"

    47 Coleman, David G., "Real-World Nuclear Deterrence: The Making of International Strategy" Praeger Security International 2006

    48 Jervis, Robert, "Rational Deterrence: Theory and Evidence" 41 (41): 1989

    49 Tversky, Amos, "Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions" 59 (59): 1986

    50 White, Ralph K., "Psychology and the Prevention of Nuclear War" New York Univ 1986

    51 Kahneman, Daniel, "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk" 47 (47): 1979

    52 MeDermott, Rose, "Prospect Theory in International Relations: The Iranian Hostage Rescue Mission" Prospect Theory and Political Psychology 13 (13): 1992

    53 McInerney, Audrey, "Prospect Theory and Soviet Policy Towards Syria, 1966-1967" 13 (13): 1992

    54 "President Truman to Samuel McCrea Cavert"

    55 Hayes, Peter, "Park Chung Hee, the CIA, and the Bomb"

    56 Kahn, Herman, "On thermonuclear war" Princeton Univ. Press 1961

    57 Ganguly, Sumit, "Nuclear Stability in South Asia" 33 (33): 2008

    58 Groves, Leslie R., "Now it can be told: The Story of the Manhattan Project" Harper & Row 1962

    59 "Notes of the Interim Committee Meeting"

    60 "Notes of Meeting of the Interim Committee"

    61 "Notes of Meeting of the Interim Committee"

    62 U.S. Department of State, Foreign Relations of the United States, "National Security Affairs, Foreign Economic Policy, Vol. I" Government Printing Office 1950

    63 Simon, Herbert A, "Models of Bounded Rationality" MIT Press 1982

    64 Bruce Bennett, "Military Implications of North Korea's Nuclear Weapons" 국가안전보장문제연구소 10 (10): 75-98, 2005

    65 "Memorandum for President, Proposed Action for Control of Atomic Bomb"

    66 "Memorandum by Eben A. Ayers, The Atomic Bomb"

    67 "Letter of Former Truman to Tsukasa Nitoguri"

    68 "Leo Szilard to Mattew J. Connelly"

    69 U.S. Department of State, Foreign Relations of the United States, "Korea, Vol. VII" Government Printing Office 1950

    70 "Joint Outline War Plan for Fiscal Year"

    71 Rees, Laurence, "Horror in the East : Japan and the Aatrocities of World War II" Da Capo Press 2002

    72 U.S. Department of State, Foreign Relations of the United States, "General; The United Nations" Government Printing Office 1947

    73 Hudson, Valerie, "Foreign Policy Analysis : Classic and Contemporary Theory" Rowman & Littlefield Pub 2007

    74 Bundy, McGeorge, "Danger and Survival: Choices about the Bomb in the First Fifty Years" Random House 1988

    75 Gaddis, John Lewis, "Cold War Statesmen Confront the Bomb Nuclear Diplomacy since 1945" Oxford Univ 1999

    76 Halperin, Morton H., "Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy" The Brookings Institution 1974

    77 Cirincione, Josep, "Bomb Scare: The History and Future of Nuclear Weapons" Columbia University Press 2007

    78 Alperovitz, Gar, "Atomic diplomacy : Hiroshima and Potsdam : The Use of the Atomic Bomb and the American Confrontation with Soviet Power" Penguin 1985

    79 Compton, Arthur Holly, "Atomic Quest" Oxford University Press 1956

    80 Park, Ki-Tae, "Analyzing North Korea’s Decision-Making Process on its Nuclear Weapons Programs with the Rational Choice and Cognitive Choice Models" Pardee RAND Graduate School 2010

    81 Schelling, Thomas C., "An Astonishing Sixty Years: The Legacy of Hiroshima" Prise Lecture at the Department of Economics and School of Public Policy, University of Maryland 2005

    82 Ross, Steven T., "American War Plans 1941-1945" Frank Cass CO. LTD 1996

    83 Sherwin, Martin J., "A World Destroyed, V.1: The Atomics Bomb and the Grand Alliance" Alfred A. Knof 1975

    84 Kunsman, David M., "A Primer on U.S. Strategic Nuclear" New Mexico Sandia National Laboratories 2001

    85 Art, Robert J., "A Grand Strategy for America" Cornell University Press 2003

    86 Berejikian, Jeffrey D., "A Cognitive Theory of Deterrence" 39 (39): 2002

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