국제금융시장에서의 통일소요자금 조달과 헤지(Hedge)의 유효성에 관한 연구 : 통화스왑(CRS)의 기법을 활용하여

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

A study on unification financing: By utilization of the Cross Currency Swap techniques

Unification needs to be treated with business management approach. The most important aspect of it is to raise required funds at a right time in advance without a problem or risk. However, existing studies tend to simply list the general and superficial aspects of unification financing rather than providing more specific and practical financing method. In this study, we review advantages and disadvantages of financing methods suggested by prior studies including Germany’s unification financing decision, government bond issuance, tax boost, foreign borrowing, etc. In addition, the present value (PV) reflecting the purchasing power of money is calculated herein to find out how competitive each method is. By doing so, this study set up research hypotheses on more practical unification financing method based on overseas borrowings as contended herein as a confident solution as well as hedging against its accompanied exchange rate risk and interest risk. Then as looking at the outlook of international financial market which is characterized as Global Dollar Chains (GDC), this study explains specific borrowing amount and terms for unification financing, global loaners, reasons of borrowing, borrowing methods, etc. Due to the abundant liquidity caused by quantitative easing and long-term low interest, I argue that this is a good timing for overseas borrowing for unification financing via positive financial diplomacy, roadshow, etc. In overseas borrowing, exchange rate and interest rate pose a risk. Thus, in hedging against these, the hedge effectiveness test, Dollar-offset method, is employed to test and verify. Based on this series of analyses, the hypotheses have been proven valid herein. Moreover this study presents the increased burden numerically according to the scenario where exchange rate and interest risks are not hedged against. Lastly, this study provides its findings and explains its significance along with in-depth analysis outcomes. Subsequent study will need to deal with other types of swap than the currency swap, option, futures techniques, justifiability of financing, unification timing, early development of diplomacy for unification financing, organization establishment and North-South Korea currency unification. To my best knowledge, this study is the first-ever academic research on unification financing based on the specific and practical technique of currency swap to hedge against exchange rate and interest fluctuation risks in the international financial market.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제1장 서론 1
• 1.1 연구 배경 1
• 1.1.1 통일의 의의 1
• 1.1.2 통일의 시기 1
• 1.1.3 통일의 경영 2
• 1.1.4 통일비용 2
• 1.1.5 실제 통일자금조달 4
• 1.2 연구 목적 5
• 1.3 연구의 구성 7
• 제2장 선행연구 9
• 2.1 선행연구 분석 9
• 2.1.1 국외연구 9
• 2.1.1.1 독일통일 사례(2011) 9
• 2.1.2 국내연구 9
• 2.1.2.1 문두식의 연구(2006) 10
• 2.1.2.2 김성윤의 연구(2010) 10
• 2.1.2.3 박일송의 연구(2010) 10
• 2.1.2.4 신창민의 연구(2010) 11
• 2.1.2.5 강석승의 연구(2011) 11
• 2.1.2.6 전형호의 연구(2011) 11
• 2.1.2.7 염명배유일호의 연구(2011) 12
• 2.1.2.8 이재권의 연구(2013) 13
• 2.2 선행연구들에 대한 이론적 고찰 14
• 2.2.1 독일사례 14
• 2.2.2 국공채발행 15
• 2.2.3 증세 16
• 2.2.4 해외차입 18
• 2.2.5 현재가치 19
• 2.2.5.1 국공채 발행의 현재가치 19
• 2.2.5.2 증세의 현재가치 20
• 2.2.5.3 해외차입의 현재가치 21
• 2.2.6 비교요약 24
• 2.3 연구가설 25
• 제3장 GDC에서 통일자금의 조달수단과 방법 28
• 3.1 GDC(Global Dollar Chains) 28
• 3.2 차입금액과 조건, 차입처 30
• 3.3 차입을 빨리 해야 하는 이유 32
• 제4장 연구방법론과 연구결과 37
• 4.1 연구방법론 37
• 4.1.1 가설 I의 연구방법론 37
• 4.1.1.1 통화스왑(CRS)의 정의 37
• 4.1.1.2 통화스왑(CRS)의 방법 38
• 4.1.1.2.1 달러로 외평채를 발행 시 통화스왑을 통한 헤지방법 38
• 4.1.1.2.2 달러 외 통화로 외평채 발행 시 통화스왑을 통한 헤지방법 40
• 4.1.1.2.3 통화스왑의 분석 방법론 40
• 4.1.2 가설II의 연구방법론 44
• 4.1.3 통화스왑을 이용한 실제 해외차입사례 45
• 4.2 연구결과 47
• 4.2.1 헤지 유효성 테스트를 통한 가설 검증 방법 47
• 4.2.1.1 가상스왑 설정 47
• 4.2.1.2 전진적 평가스왑 51
• 4.2.1.3 전진적 평가 가상스왑 54
• 4.2.1.4 소급적 평가스왑 58
• 4.2.1.5 소급적 평가 가상스왑 61
• 4.2.2 환율위험 헤지(Hedge)의 효과 65
• 4.2.3 금리위험 헤지(Hedge)의 효과 65
• 제5장 결론 및 향후과제 67
• 5.1 연구결과 요약 67
• 5.2 연구의 한계점 68
• 5.3 연구의 향후과제 68
• [참고문헌] 73
• [Abstract] 75