인도태평양 규칙기반 질서 형성과 쿼드협력의 전망 = Forging a Indo-Pacific Rule-based Order and Prospect for the QUAD Cooperation

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 논문은 인도태평양이라는 지전략적 개념에 대한 미국, 일본, 호주, 인도의 차별적 이해수준을 살펴보고, 인도태평양 역내 세력전이의 상황 속에서 약화되어가는 미국의 자유국제주의 질서, 그 가운데에서도 규칙기반 질서에 대한 국가별 인식을 비교한다. 그리고 이러한규칙기반 질서를 강화하기 위한 각국의 인도태평양 전략과 쿼드 협력의 방향에 대해 전망해본다. 아직 구체적인 인도태평양 전략이 형성되어가는 과정이지만, 네 국가들 사이의 가장 큰 차이점은 인도태평양 전략공간에 대한 상이한 인식, 중국의 부상에 대한 서로 다른 대응 양상이다. 특히 각국의 전략은 중국에 대한 헤징과 균형 사이의 연속선상에 각각 달리 위치하고 있으며, 이러한 상황은 궁극적으로 쿼드 협력의 지속 가능성의 제약요소로 기능할 것으로 예측된다. 또한 향후 미국이 인도태평양 전략을 통해 추구할 규칙기반 질서가 과연 역내 형성될 다극체제와 정합성을 가질 수 있을지의 여부, 그리고 인도태평양 역내 더 많은 국가들이 참여할 수 있는 쿼드협력의 확대가 과연 기존의 동류국가 간의 협력과 같은 양태를 보일수 있을지도 주목할 필요가 있을 것이다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This research explores a geostrategic concept of Indo-pacific and how differently the US, Japan, Australia and India understand it. Also, it compares how these four countries perceive the declining US-led liberal internationalist order, more specifically, a rule-based order in the context of power transition in the Indo-pacific and how they attempt to strengthen rule-based order in the region and forge the quadrilateral security dialogue, or, QUAD. While the specifics of the Indo-pacific strategies are in the making, four countries still do not agree with the geostrategic scope of the Indo-pacific, not to mention of sharing threat perception on China and coerciveness of responding strategies. Four countries’ responses against China exist on the continuum between hedging and balancing, which will make it difficult to sustain the cooperation on the QUAD. Besides, it should be explored whether the US-led Indo-pacific strategy and corresponding rule-based order can be compatible with rising multipolar structure in the region and whether expansion of the QUAD that might include more regional countries would result in the cooperation among ‘like-minded countries’ as in the past.

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