인구고령화와 주택가격 : 벡터오차수정모형(VECM)을 통한 실증연구 = Population Aging and House Prices: An Empirical Study with Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study investigates empirically the impact of changes in population structure on housing prices by using a panel data set from the eleven OECD member countries, and offers a simulation outcome as to the expected effects of population aging in the case of Korea with the fitted empirical model. Our analysis is based on the recent literature, but we attempt to institute two improvements in terms of the empirical methodology: First, the relationship among three key explanatory factors (i.e., GDP growth rate per capita, growth rate of inverse working-age population ratio (IWAPR), and total population growth rate) is explicitly modeled, and the empirical test is done accordingly. Second, we replace the fixed effect panel (FE-panel) regression model used in the prior studies with Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), which is regarded as a more refined estimation method. Our results show that: as expected, both GDP growth rate and total population growth rate have a positive and significant impact on the housing price changes, while IWAPR has a negative and significant impact. Hence, as that ratio is expected to increase in Korea in the near future, the house price may fall in response to that; However, that effect is shown to be offset if the real GDP growth rate is maintained around 1.6% to 2.2% per annum. Nonetheless, we anticipate that the demographic structure will cause a more pronounced shock on the Korean economy after 2030, after which the total population is expected to decline. Several policy measures are discussed as possible remedies.