시장 출시 전 신상품 수요 예측에 관한 연구： 위성DMB 사례를 중심으로 = A Prelaunch Forecasting Model for New Products with an Application to the Satellite DMB Market in Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study is to propose a sales forecasting framework for new products in the prelaunch phase where no sales data are available. For the purpose we first develop an extended Bass model with the dynamic market potential and then propose an estimation method based on the market survey and scenario methodology. The proposed parameter estimation method is different from previous studies in that most of them have only proposed the management judgments or analogies. We also apply the proposed model to satellite DMB market in Korea to verify the model.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 송영화, "혁신채택 및 확산이론의 통신방송융합(위성DMB) 서비스 수요추정 응용＂" 22 (22): 179-197, 2005

2 박승관, "한국사회에서의 DMB 도입과 그 의의" 2003.

3 채서일, "체계적 분석의 틀에 따른 라이프스타일 연구 소비자학 연구" 46-63, 1992

4 변상규, "지상파DMB 서비스의 잠재가치 평가" 11 (11): 83-104, 2004

5 최현철, "위성 DMB 시장 예측 및 경제적 효과분석" 2003.

6 이호규, "위성 DMB 서비스 도입에 따른 사회문화적 효과" 2003.

7 주영진, "순위반응모형을 이용한 신규서비스 잠재시장규모의 추정" 15 (15): 141-159, 2005

8 송문섭, "수리통계학 제2개정판," 박영사 85-88, 2002

9 김학윤, "소비자 행동" 무역경영사 1996.

10 임종원, "마케팅조사방법론" 법문사 2001.

11 전덕빈, "국내 이동전화서비스 시장 예측을 위한 동적 포화시장모형" 27 (27): 176-180, 2001

12 Lazer, "in Toward Scientific Marketing" 130-139, 1963

13 Mansfield, "Technical Change and the Rate of Imitation" eco 29 (eco 29): 741-766, 1961

14 Mahajan, "Simple Algebraic Estimation Procedure for Innovation Diffusion Models of New Product Acceptance" 30 : 331-346, 1986

15 Alpert, "Product Positioning by Behavioral Life-styles Journal of Marketing" 33 (33): 65-69, 1969

16 Smith, "Product Differentiation and Segmentation as Alternative Marketing Strategies Journal of Marketing" 21 (21): 3-8, 1956

17 R.M, "Problems in Predicting New Product Growth for Consumer Durables" 26 : 1007-1020, 1980

18 Srinivasan, "Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation of New Product Diffusion Models" 5 : 169-178, 1986

19 Mahajan, "New Product Diffusion Models in Marketing：A Review and Directions for Research Journal of Marketing" 54 : 1-26, 1990

20 "New Criteria for Marketing Segmentation" 52 (52): 1964

21 H, "Modeling Multinational Diffusion Patterns: An Efficient Methodology" gatig 8 (gatig 8): 231-247, 1989

22 Richard, "Lifestyle Segmentation in Apparel Marketing Journal of Marketing" 41 (41): 89-91, 1977

23 Wells, "Journal of Advertising Research" 11 (11): 27-35, 1971

24 Mahajan, "Innovation Diffusion in a Dynamic Potential Adopter Population" 24 : 1589-1597, 1978

25 Jun, D.B.,, "Forecasting Demand for Low Earth Orbit Mobile Satellite Service in Korea" 14 : 311-319, 2000

26 Thomas, "Estimating Market Growth for New Products: An Analogical Diffusion Model Approach Journal of Product Innovation Management" 2 : 45-55, 1985

27 Jain, "Effect of Price on the Demand for Durables：Modeling Journal of Business & Economic Statistics" 8 (8): 163-170, 1990

28 Fourt, "Early Prediction of Market Success for New Grocery Products Journal of Marketing" 25 : 31-38, 1960

29 방송위원회,, "DMB데이터방송 및 DMC 등 디지털방송에 관한 종합계획" 방송위원회, 2003.

30 심상민, "DMB 컨텐츠 육성 및 서비스 활성화를 위한 정책방안" 2003.

31 박윤서, "DMB 서비스 선호 유형별 시장 세분화연구: 지상파DMB와 위성DMB 비교 분석을 중심으로" 9 (9): 52-83, 2006

32 Hawkins, D.I, "Consumer Behavior" Irwin McGraw- Hill, 1998.

33 Solomon, "Consumer Behavior" 1994.

34 Hanan, "Consultative Selling and Life Style Marketing" 1972.

35 Sharif, "Binomial Innovation Diffusion Models with Dynamic Potential Adopter Population" 63-87, 1981

36 Lawrence, "Applications of Diffusion Models：Some Empirical Results" eds. Lexington MA：Lexington Books 529-541, 1981

37 Bass, "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables" 15 (15): 215-227, 1969

38 Kalish, "A New Product Adoption Model with Price" 31 (31): 1569-1585, 1985

39 Srivastava, "A Multi-Attribute Diffusion Model for Forecasting the Adoption of Investment Alternatives for Consumers" s. 28 (s. 28): 325-333, 1985

40 Sultan, "A Meta-Analysis of Diffusion Models Journal of Marketing Research" 27 : 70-77, 1990