한반도형 협력안보와 평화경제 연계구상

국문 초록 (Abstract)

한의 비핵화는 한반도 평화체제 달성에 있어 중요한 목표 중 하나다. 북한의 비핵
화 문제에 접근하는 방법에 있어 보다 전략적이고 현실적인 접근이 요구된다. 북한의
비핵화 의지를 확실하게 끌어내고 협상과 합의의 이행 수준을 높이기 위해서는 협상
프레임, 내용, 시간에 대한 현실적 이해가 필요하다. 북한 비핵화를 상호안전보장과 상
호위협감소라는 틀 안에서 교환하는 구도, 당사국 모두의 안전이 상호적으로 포괄적으
로 보장되는 구도, 비핵화와 상호안전보장에 대한 국제적 보장, 경제적 공동번영을 포
함하는 장기간의 시간 소요 등을 고려한 접근이다. 즉, 남·북·미 사이의 ‘협력적 위협감
소’, ‘평화제도화’, ‘공동번영’을 상호안전보장이라는 큰 틀 아래에서 종합적·단계적으로
이행하는 접근이다. 북한의 핵위협을 포함한 한반도에 현실화되어 있는 상호 군사적 위
협을 실질적으로 감소시키면서 동시에 경제적 공동번영을 추진하는 접근이다.
남·북·미가 북한의 비핵화를 하나의 목표로 삼되, 비핵화 협상·이행의 과정과 속도는
정치기술적 차원에서 유연하게 접근할 필요가 있다. 신속한 비핵화가 이상적이지만, 북
한의 비핵화는 정치적 합의와 기술적 과정이라는 매우 긴 호흡과 시간을 요한다. 점진
적이거나 부분적인 비핵화 상황을 상당기간 경유하는 장기간의 비핵화 과정도 배제할
수 없다. 북한의 비핵화의 의지를 제고하고 북한의 안전보장 및 발전 욕구를 일정 수
준 충족시키면서 한반도 핵위협을 비롯한 재래식 무기 위협을 단계적으로 감소시키며
국제사회의 지지와 보장을 받는 종합적 프로그램을 모색할 필요가 있다. 단계적인 상호
협력적인 위협감소를 통해 실제 ‘완전한 비핵화’ 도달 이전에라도 핵무기의 위협도를
낮추고 향후 사용을 제한하는 비핵화의 실질적 효과를 만들어내는 현실적인 평화프로
세스를 고민해 볼 필요가 있다.
핵심은 (남북, 북미, 남북미, 남북미중, 동북아 다자 등이) 상호안전을 보장해 가며
가능한 것부터 위협을 감소시키는 종합적인 ‘협력적 전환 프로그램’을 설계하고 합의하
는 것이다. 남·북·미를 중심적 협력층위로 놓고 남북-북미-한미의 국지적 협력층위, 그
국문요약
리고 동북아 다자 및 국제기구의 보장적 협력층위가 상호 협력적으로 연계되는 다중
스케일의 구상이 필요하다. 이런 구상은 북한의 ‘비핵화’ 수용과 선행 여부, 북미의 협
상과 정책기조에 따라 일희일비를 거듭하는 협상 및 접근구도가 현실적인 문제해결 능
력을 갖지 못해 왔다는 문제의식에 입각해 있다.
‘북한의 비핵화’만을 전제조건으로 내거는 방식이 아니라 비핵화에 상응하는 안전보
장의 제공과 한반도의 실질적 위협감소, 경제발전 등이 종합적으로 연계되는 접근이 필
요하다. 평화경제는 기존 남북한 경제협력의 복원이나 활성화 수준이 아닌 안보, 방역,
혁신, 번영이 협력안보와 상호안전보장의 틀 속에서 선순환하는 경제적 메커니즘으로
개념화할 필요가 있다. 본 연구는 ‘상호안전보장’이란 차원에서 상호 협력적 위협감소,
평화제도화, 경제적 공동번영 등이 선순환하며 ‘신뢰’를 단계적으로 축적해가는 협력안
보 구상과 프로그램을 제기하고 있다. 그런 측면에서 평화경제는 협력안보의 경제적 효
과를 강조하는 개념이라고 할 수 있다.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제1장 서론: 안보와 경제의 선순환 ········································································· 1
• 제1절 연구배경과 목적 ····························································································· 3
• 제2절 주요 개념과 연구문제 ··················································································· 5
• 1. 한반도형 협력안보 개념 ·································································································6
• 2. 한반도형 협력적 상호위협감소 프로그램 개념 ·····························································7
• 3. 협력의 다중스케일 개념 ·································································································7
• 4. 평화경제 개념 ··················································································································8
• 제2장 한반도형 협력안보의 개념과 구성 ································································· 9
• 제1절 안보 패러다임과 한반도 안보구조 ····························································· 11
• 1. 안보 패러다임의 유형과 협력안보의 핵심 논지 ·························································13
• 가. 국가안보와 국제안보 패러다임 ············································································13
• 나. 협력안보의 핵심 논지 ······························································································15
• 2. 한반도 이중 안보체제의 성격과 특징 ·········································································17
• 가. 정전체제 ····················································································································17
• 나. 동북아와 연계된 동맹체제 ·····················································································18
• 3. 한반도형 협력안보의 필요조건 ····················································································20
• 가. 비핵화 여건조성과 상호안전보장 ············································································20
• 나. 남북한 평화적 군비통제 추진 ············································································22
• 제2절 협력안보의 경험적·이론적 검토 ································································ 25
• 1. 협력안보의 개념과 이론적 논의 ··················································································25
• 가. 등장배경 ····················································································································25
• 나. 이론 및 주요 내용 ····································································································27
• 2. 협력안보 경험 사례 ······································································································29
• 가. NATO의 협력안보체제로의 변용 ·············································································29
• 나. 미국의 협력적 상호위협감소 프로그램 ···································································32
• 3. 한반도 안보와 평화에 주는 함의 ················································································33
• 제3절 한반도형 협력안보의 조건과 협력적 전환 ··············································· 34
• 1. 상호안전보장 차원의 평화프로세스 재구성 ································································34
• 가. 한반도 평화문제의 본질 ···························································································34
• 나. 북한의 안전보장 요구와 현상변경 전략 ·······························································35
• 2. 팬데믹 시대와 북미관계 불확실성에 대한 대응 ·························································39
• 가. 대내외 불확실성에 대응한 북한의 전략무기 개발 ···············································39
• 나. 코로나19 시대 한반도 안보 정세의 불확실성에 대한 대응 ·································42
• 3. 협력안보와 남북관계의 전환적 사고 ···········································································45
• 가. 반발로서의 배제전략 ································································································45
• 나. 팬데믹 시대 새로운 남북협력 방식으로서 협력안보 ·············································47
• 제3장 협력적 상호위협감소 프로그램 ·································································· 51
• 제1절 협력적 상호위협감소의 개념과 실제 ························································· 53
• 1. 협력적 상호위협감소의 개념 ························································································53
• 2. 협력적 상호위협감소의 실제 ························································································54
• 가. 협력적 상호위협감소 사례 : 수혜국 측면 ······························································54
• 나. 협력적 상호위협감소 사례 : 공여국 측면 ······························································58
• 다. 해외 CTR 사례의 시사점 및 한반도형 CTR 모색 ················································60
• 3. 안보와 경제발전의 선순환 사례 및 유형 ···································································62
• 가. 안보와 경제 동시발전 가능성: 사례와 유형 ··························································62
• 목차
• iii
• 나. 개혁개방 및 체제전환과 경제-안보의 관계 ····························································73
• 제2절 한반도형 협력적 위협감소: 스케일·프로세스·프로그램 ··························· 76
• 1. 한반도형 협력적 상호위협감소 모델의 특징 ······························································76
• 가. 위협에 대한 인식 ····································································································76
• 나. 협력 주체와 형식 ····································································································77
• 2. 한반도형 협력적 상호위협감소 모델의 스케일 ···························································79
• 가. 다층적 협력 연계의 스케일링 ··················································································79
• 나. 3개의 협력층위 ·········································································································80
• 3. 한반도형 협력적 상호위협감소 이행의 프로세스와 프로그램 ···································82
• 가. 이행 프로세스 ···········································································································82
• 나. 선제적 위협감소 조치 ······························································································85
• 다. 핵·재래식 무기 위협감소를 위한 접근전략 ··························································88
• 라. 핵·재래식 위협 감소를 위한 초기 KCMTR 구동 ················································94
• 마. 비군사분야 협력 아이템과 평화경제 ·······································································98
• 제3절 한반도형 협력적 위협감소 실천의 조건과 환경 ···································· 109
• 1. 전략문화와 인민군 역할의 변화 가능성 ···································································109
• 가. 북한 전략문화의 특성과 최근의 경향 ···································································110
• 나. 북한군의 역할 변화와 경제발전 모델에의 함의 ··················································115
• 2. 위협감소를 위한 국제적 접근 ····················································································121
• 가. 지정학적 구도의 변화와 활용: 미중 전략적 갈등 속에서의 위협감소 ··············121
• 나. 중국의 역할: 6자회담의 재개 추진과 북한의 개혁개방 유도를 통한 위협감소 122
• 다. 남북중 협력: 인간안보 증진을 통한 협력적 위협감소 ······································125