OECD 국가들의 인구구조의 변화에 따른 노인복지지출의 수렴현상에 관한 분석 = A Convergence Analysis in Social Expenditure for Old Age in twenty Countries of OECD from 1980 to 2005: the impact of demographic change on the social expenditure for old age

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper shows the pattern of social expenditures in welfare states and the convergence of the social expenditure for the old age. In this study we classify twenty welfare states into four categories: conservative-corporatist; social-democratic; Mediterranean: and Anglo-Saxon from 1980 to 2005. And we use explanatory variables as the age-dependency ratio, the old age employment ratio, the old age ratio, the openness ratio, the unemployment ratio and use a dependent variable as social expenditure for old age relative to total social expenditure. As a result, there is a positive relation between the aging population ratio and the social expenditure for old age relative total social expenditure. In the case of social-democratic welfare countries, the social expenditure for old age is only affected by the demographic change, the age-dependency ratio and the old age employment ratio. In the conservative-corporatist countries, the social expenditure for old ages is affected by the aging ratio. In the Mediterranean countries, the convergence of the social expenditure for old age does not appear. And in the Anglo-Saxon welfare countries, the aging ratio and the aged dependency ratio, and the unemployment ratio are major factors of increase of social expenditure from 1990 to 2005. Overall the convergence of the social expenditure for old age relative to total social expenditure in twenty countries occurred. At the same time, the expenditure is affected not only by the aged ratio to total population from 1980 to 2005, but also by the unemployment ratio form 1990 to 2005.