The study is grounded in the global context of population aging and focuses on the issue of strategic investment pathways in the field of elderly health, aiming to achieve dual innovations in both theory and methodology. Drawing on the investment prac...
The study is grounded in the global context of population aging and focuses on the issue of strategic investment pathways in the field of elderly health, aiming to achieve dual innovations in both theory and methodology. Drawing on the investment practices and supply–demand dynamics of Japan and South Korea in the elderly health sector between 2014 and 2023, this research constructs a dynamic fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) framework. Using seven core supply–demand variables as the entry point, the study systematically explores the multiple configurational pathways for increasing the proportion of investment in elderly health. Through modeling and analyzing cross-national panel data, the research not only identifies several typical strategic investment pathways but also uncovers the complex interactive logic between fiscal, market, technological, and institutional dimensions. This provides a new theoretical perspective and empirical evidence for understanding strategic investment models in the healthcare industry under aging societies. The results reveal that elderly health strategic investment pathways exhibit diverse configurational patterns. The identification of four typical pathways provides clear policy references for aging nations: Pathway 1 (P1) emphasizes high fiscal input, technological innovation, and institutional capacity expansion, highlighting strong government-led intervention and enhanced institutional supply; Pathway 2 (P2) combines fiscal investment, social capital participation, high reimbursement levels, and institutional capacity, reflecting a collaborative public–private investment model; Pathway 3 (P3) underscores the integration of fiscal input and technological innovation, supported by the development of smart platforms, emphasizing the role of digital empowerment in improving service accessibility and system resilience; Pathway 4 (P4) integrates market capital, technological innovation, smart platforms, institutional capacity, and high reimbursement, showcasing a multidimensional synergy where market-driven mechanisms interact with institutional safeguards. Collectively, these pathways suggest that the “four-dimensional linkage of fiscal leverage, market incentives, digital empowerment, and institutional security” constitutes the core logic driving efficiency improvements in resource allocation.
At the methodological level, the contribution of this research lies in the introduction and application of dynamic fsQCA. Compared with traditional linear regression and input–output models, fsQCA is capable of identifying causal complexity and multiple configurational paths, while also revealing sufficient condition pathways under different combinations of factors. By applying dynamic threshold adjustments and excluding extreme values, the study further validates the robustness of the results, enhancing the external validity and generalizability of its conclusions. Unlike much of the existing literature, which tends to focus on single-country cases or individual variables, this research achieves a methodological breakthrough by employing cross-national comparison and configurational pathway identification, incorporating government, market, technology, and institutional elements into a holistic analytical framework. In terms of cross-national comparison, Japan and South Korea demonstrate divergent development patterns. South Korea shows greater coverage strength in government-led and market-oriented reform pathways, leveraging the synergistic effects of fiscal input and social capital to expand healthcare coverage and enhance institutional rigidity. Japan, by contrast, excels in pilot pathways of smart care and telemedicine, achieving widespread and personalized digital healthcare services through large-scale investment in ICT infrastructure and smart health platforms. The comparison of these two cases indicates that varying institutional contexts and fiscal capacities shape differentiated choices of strategic investment pathways, offering valuable and diverse lessons for other aging societies.
In terms of policy implications, this study suggests that fiscal, market, technological, and institutional elements should be flexibly configured according to the fiscal capacity, demographic structure, and social needs of each country or region, avoiding over-reliance on any single dimension of investment logic. Priority should also be given to the development of smart service platforms and public–private partnership models to meet the differentiated demands of super-aged societies. By employing policy tools in combination and pursuing institutional innovations in multiple dimensions, governments can more effectively mitigate the fiscal pressures and resource shortages confronting healthcare systems, thereby achieving sustainable health governance in the context of population aging. Consequently, this study not only responds to the practical demand for research on strategic investment in the healthcare industry under aging societies but also contributes new theoretical and methodological insights. It holds significant theoretical and practical value for advancing the modernization of health governance systems, improving the accessibility and quality of elderly health services, and realizing the strategic national objective of healthy aging.