南北韓 經濟交流가 韓半島 平和增進에 미치는 效果 分析 = (The)effect of economic exchange between South Korea and North Korea on the peace of Korean peninsula

국문 초록 (Abstract)

영문초록:It is widely known that politics and economy have close related. For example though International trade between countries sometimes arise without any relation to the political conflict between countries, however, it is generally tended to depending on the political situation. According to an argument of Kant who insisted that trading intrinsically promote peace, and bilateral trading would provide economic gain to the countries participating in trading, and it would improve the dialog of the trading countries to resolve the disputes between the countries peacefully. As his argument, economic exchange between South and North Korea would work positively to relax the tension and building up the condition to bring peace in the Korean Peninsula. In particular, the economic exchange and cooperation between South and North Korea has special implication from any other general economic exchange between two countries since it is important to set the peace in the Korean Peninsula, recovery of independent competency of the people, and an important way toward the unification. Under the special situation, the economic exchange and cooperation of South and North Korea transcends the boundary of economy but to closely related to the political boundary that the economic effect of South and North economic exchange as well as the political effect related to the peace in the Korean Peninsula has been analyzed. Therefore, in relation to structuring the peace system in the Korean Peninsula, this study has the implication in South and North Korea economic exchange and cooperation not only increase the economic gain between South and North Korea but also bring the political peace or relaxation of tension in the Korean Peninsula, and the focus is on whether it would bring the peaceful impact in the economic exchange and political conflict between South and North Korea. Accordingly, in this study, the theories on economic exchange and the national conflicts that attracted a great interests in international politics and economic fields in the 1990s, and apply the theories into the South and North Korea economic exchange in a way to take a look at the trading consideration and trade symmetry between South and North Korea, and based on it, the change in mutual economic dependency of South and North Korea has been analyzed. The result of analysis indicates that, first, the trade on North Korea by South Korea has shown a great increase, but the trade ratio on South Korea by North Korea has been maintained a very low level. As the combined result of such a contrasting trading ratio, the trading consideration of South and North Korea has been in low level. Second, the trading symmetry of South and North Korea shows high value in indices with gradual decrease that the trade relationship between South and North Korea is not deemed as unilateral subordinated relation that there is no possibility of economic subordination to this point. Third, the mutual economic dependency between South and North Korea had rapidly increased in the beginning of trading but it has been stagnated statue from 1995, and the indices are in low level since. Such a result on mutual economic dependency of South and North Korea indicates that it is headed to the desirable direction of the economic exchange of South and North Korea has been made in mutually symmetric relationship. However, the economic exchange of South and North Korea still shows that it is insufficient to completely relax and resolve the tense and confrontational relationship of South and North Korea. To find out the impact of economic exchange of South and North Korea on the their conflicts, the economic exchange was to classify into monthly, and disaggregation between South and North trade. Empirical results show that economic exchange of South and North Korea in chemical industrial goods and electronic and electric goods only made peaceful effects. So we can not conclude easily that the "Sunshine Policy" under the past Kim Dae-joong administration, "Peace and Prosperity Policy" of the current Roh Moo-hyun administration, would make sufficient role in improving the peaceful political relationship between South and North Korea