우리나라의 연령-범죄분포 변화에 대한코호트 분석 = A Study of the Change in the Korea Age Distribution of Crime: A Cohort Analysis

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper analyzes increasing crime rates of middle-aged people, a strange phenomenon that occurred in Korea. In criminology, it is generally known that the age distribution of crime peaks in the ages of late 10``s and early 20``s. In case of Korea, however, the peak has been moving to the right since early 1990``s and is now formed in 40``s. By using Cohort Analysis Method to derive net effects of cohorts, ages, and periods, this paper shows that the main cause of the phenomenon is cohort effects: some cohorts have higher crime rates and do not correspond with the baby boomer generation. Also, this result indicates that period effects have much less influences on crimes of middle-aged people. To find out what made these cohorts have higher crime rates, I implemented cause analysis, and it turned out that their exposure to drastic changes in Korea society in their early 20``s, made the cohorts commit more crimes. For more accurate analysis, applied method of cohort analysis from Deaton(1997) and Mason et al.(1973) was used with the raw data of Analytical Report on Crime annually published by Supreme Public Prosecutor``s Office of Korea.