그래프이론(DAG)을 이용한 국민소득과 에너지 간의 동시적 인과관계 분석 = A study on Contemporaneous causal relationship between GDP and Energy using Graph Theory

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Applying a multivariate error correction model of GDP, energy, capital, and labor, we have studied contemporaneous causality between income and energy using directed acyclic graph. Empirical results from DAG and forecast error variance decomposition for Korea over the period 1981:1-2004:4 suggest a unidirectional causal relationship running from GDP to energy in contemporaneous time. It implies an energy conservation policy may be feasible without compromising economic growth in the long run. The result is also consistent with Oh and Lee(2004b) which adopts Granger time sequence causality.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구에서는 방향지시 비순환성 그래프(DAG)이론을 이용하여 국민소득과 에너지 간의 동시적 인과관계를 분석하였다. 분석은 1981:1~2004:4 분기 데이터와 GDP, 에너지, 자본, 노동의 다변량모형을 사용하였다. 오차수정모형과 DAG를 접목한 실증분석 결과, 국민소득은 에너지를 인과하는데 반하여 그 역은 성립하지 않음을 발견하였다. 또한 예측오차 분산분해도 동일한 결과를 보여 주었다. 이러한 실증분석 결과는 경제성장을 제약함 없이도 어느 정도 에너지 소비를 줄일 수 있음을 시사해주는 것으로 그랜저 시차적 인과관계를 이용하여 장기에 동일한 일방향 인과관계를 발견한 Oh and Lee(2004b)와 일치하는 것이기도 하다.

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