시공간구조를 가지는 확률적 강우 모형 = Multi-Site Stochastic Weather Generator for Daily Rainfall in Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

A stochastic weather generator based on a generalized linear model (GLM) approach is a commonly used tools to simulate a time series of daily weather. In this paper, we propose a multi-site weather generator with applications to historical data in South Korea. The proposed method extends the approach of Kim et al. (2012) by considering spatial dependence in the model. To reduce this phenomenon, we also incorporate a time series of seasonal mean precipitations of South Korea in the GLM weather generator as a covariate. Spatial dependence was incorporated into the model through a latent Gaussian process. We apply the proposed model to precipitation data provided by 62 stations in Korea from 1973{2011.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 Wilks, D. S., "Use of stochastic weather generators for precipitation downscaling" 1 : 2010

2 Wilks, D. S., "The weather generator game: A review of stochastic weather models" 23 : 329-357, 1999

3 Richardson, C. W., "Stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation" 17 : 82-190, 1981

4 Buishand, T. A., "Some remarks on the use of daily rainfall models" 47 : 235-249, 1978

5 Cleveland, W. S., "Robust locally-weighted regression and smoothing scatterplots" 74 : 829-836, 1979

6 Kim, Y., "Reducing overdispersion in stochastic weather generators using a generalized linear modeling approach" 53 : 13-24, 2012

7 Maraun, D., "Precipitation downscaling under climate change: Recent devel- opments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user" 48 : 2010

8 Katz, R. W., "Overdispersion phenomenon in stochastic modeling of precipitation" 11 : 591-601, 1998

9 Katz, R. W., "Mixture model for overdispersion of precipitation" 12 : 2528-2537, 1999

10 Furrer, E. M., "Generalized linear modeling approach to stochastic weather generators" 34 : 129-144, 2007

11 McCullagh, P., "Generalized Linear Models" Chapman and Hall 1989

12 Hastie, T. J., "Generalized Additive Models" Chapman and Hall 1990

13 Hansen, J. W., "Correcting low-frequency variability bias in stochastic weather generators" 109 : 297-310, 2001

14 Wilks, D. S., "Conditioning stochastic daily precipitation models on total monthly precipitation" 25 : 1429-1439, 1989

15 Stern, R. D., "A model fitting analysis of daily rainfall data" 147 : 1-34, 1984