Why demography matters

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CONTENTS
• List of Figures and Tables = x
• Acknowledgements = xiv
• 1 Introduction = 1
• 2 Measuring Populations = 17
• Demography : the accessible social science = 17
• We don't know as much as we might like to think we do = 19
• A short history of error in demography = 24
• The use (and abuse) of the measurements we use = 29
• Baby booms and baby slumps = 32
• Conclusion = 41
• 3 Destiny and Determination = 43
• Projections versus forecasts = 43
• The dented crystal ball = 46
• The failure to foresee falls in fertility = 50
• From 'showing' the future to 'shaping' the future = 52
• Building uncertainly into the model = 55
• Live and let live, and famine = 59
• Adding education to population forecasts = 63
• Conclusion = 69
• 4 Population 'Explosion' = 71
• The overwhelming narrative = 72
• Malaria and the good news that is so often ignored = 78
• The algae bloom of human beings, 1800-2000 = 82
• Censuses, surveys and scenarios = 88
• Demographic transition or population explosion? = 93
• Conclusion = 96
• 5 Why No Children? = 98
• A polarized world = 98
• The low fertility world = 102
• Pushing parents, supporting parents = 107
• Who's to `blame'? = 110
• Conclusion = 119
• 6 Population Ageing = 123
• Help the aged? = 123
• What causes population ageing? = 125
• The demographic dividend = 130
• Measuring population ageing = 134
• Beyond numbers : the real challenges of the ageing population = 144
• Conclusion : challenges and opportunities = 148
• 7 Population and the Global Economy = 151
• 'Too many there, too few here' = 151
• The demand for labour = 154
• Rural to urban migration = 157
• Emerging markets, fading markets = 159
• The mysterious vanishing act of the global labour pool = 162
• Family planning and peak working-age population = 169
• Alternative projections = 175
• Conclusion : no such thing as destiny = 181
• 8 Population and Politics = 183
• Politics, demography and history = 184
• The danger of demography = 193
• Schools, politics and demography = 198
• Cultural identity, nationalism and population decline = 202
• Net lifetime cohort migration = 204
• 9 Conclusion : Understanding Ourselves, Understanding Each Other = 213
• Notes = 226
• Bibliography = 230
• Index = 247