Potential impact of climate change on plant invasion in the Republic of Korea|RISS 상세보기

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Background: Invasive plant species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and human wellbeing worldwide. Climatically suitable ranges for invasive plant species are expected to expand due to future climate change. The identification of current invasions and potential range expansion of invasive plant species is required to plan for the management of these species. Here, we predicted climatically suitable habitats for 11 invasive plant species and calculated the potential species richness and their range expansions in different provinces of the Republic of Korea (ROK) under current and future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach.
Results: Based on the model predictions, areas of climatically suitable habitats for 90.9% of the invasive plant species are expected to retain current ecological niches and expand to include additional climatically suitable areas under future climate change scenarios. Species richness is predicted to be relatively high in the provinces of the western and southern regions (e.g., Jeollanam, Jeollabuk, and Chungcheongnam) under current climatic conditions. However, under future climates, richness in the provinces of the northern, eastern, and southeastern regions (e.g.,Seoul, Incheon, Gyeonggi, Gyeongsangnam, Degue, Busan, and Ulsan) is estimated to increase up to 292%, 390.75%, and 468.06% by 2030, 2050, and 2080, respectively, compared with the current richness.
Conclusions: Our study revealed that the rates of introduction and dispersion of invasive plant species from the western and southern coasts are relatively high and are expanding across the ROK through different modes of dispersion. The negative impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem dynamics, and economy caused by invasive plant species will be high if preventive and eradication measures are not employed immediately. Thus, this study will be helpful to policymakers for the management of invasive plant species and the conservation of biodiversity.

번역하기

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 이승현, "한반도에서 종 분포 모델을 이용한 두 침입외래식물, 돼지풀과물참새피의 잠재적 분포 예측" 응용생태공학회 3 (3): 189-200, 2016

2 조강현, "한반도에서 기후변화에 따른 수변 외래식물인 털물참새피의분포 변화 예측" 응용생태공학회 2 (2): 206-215, 2015

3 박현철, "위성영상과 Maxent를 활용한 생태계교란생물 분포지역 예측 : DMZ의 단풍잎돼지풀을 대상으로" 한국환경복원기술학회 20 (20): 1-12, 2017

4 남형규, "농업생태계 기후변화 지표식물 7종의 분포 특성과 기후변화에 따른 영향 예측" 한국하천호수학회 51 (51): 221-233, 2018

5 Blaise Petitpierre, "Will climate change increase the risk of plant invasions into mountains?" Wiley 26 (26): 530-544, 2016

6 Thapa S, "Understanding the dynamics in distribution of invasive alien plant species under predicted climate change in Western Himalaya" 13 : e0195752-, 2018

7 National Institute of Environmental Research, "The second and third national ecosystem survey: 1997–2012" National Institute of Environmental Research 2013

8 Manchester SJ, "The impacts of non-native species on UK biodiversity and the effectiveness of control" 37 : 845-864, 2000

9 Ministry of Environment, "The fifth national report to the convention on biological diversity" Ministry of Environment 2014

10 Cullen J, "The European garden flora: manual for the identification cultivated of plants in Europe, both out-of-doors and under glass" Cambridge University Press 2011