지각된 메시지 효과성은 실제 메시지 효과를 얼마나 반영하는가? 설득 캠페인 메시지의 지각된 효과와 실제 효과

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

To predict the effectiveness of persuasive campaign messages in advance, campaign practitioners utilize perceived message effectiveness (PME). However, it has been debated whether actual message effect (AME) can be predicted with PME. Based on correlational data, some researchers argued that PME is a causal antecedent of AME and can be used in place of AME in formative campaign research. O’Keefe criticized the use of correlations to test the diagnosticity of PME and proposed a new method, comparing the direction of difference in PME and that of AME for message pairs. In a meta-analysis, O’Keefe found that the direction of difference between PME and AME were matched in only 58% of message pairs. To resolve this debate, we critically examined existing testing methods and improved those methods to more rigorously test the PME-AME relationship. Also, applying the method used in the study of perceived polling effect on individuals’ attitudes, we suggested to directly compare PME with AME to find the proportion that PME reflects AME. We also classified various types of PME measures into perceived argument quality, estimated message impact on self (or others), and perceived change in attitude of oneself (or others) due to message exposure. We conducted a two-wave panel survey and measured perceived and actual effect of four campaign messages that were created by public agencies to promote the safety of nuclear power plants in South Korea (N = 475). Initial attitudes of respondents were measured in the first survey, and a week later, four messages were randomly presented to different groups, then various measures of PME and AME were measured. We found that both across-message and message-specific PME-AME correlations was positive and relatively high. With a modified method of O’Keefe the direction of the difference in PME matched with that of AME in all message paires (30/30) showing high level of diagnosticity. Respondents with negative initial attitudes underestimated the message effect, reporting their attitude change due to message exposure as 43.2% of the actual attitude change. Those with neutral attitudes reported their attitude change as 76.3% of the actual attitude change. These results suggest that while PME can be used for campaign message design, practitioners need to be aware of the systematic bias it contains.

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