서울시 대중교통 수단별 월별 이용수요의 변동에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study is aimed at exploring and identifying impact factors on the variation of monthly transit ridership by its mode in the Seoul metropolitan city. It employs the Error Correction AutoRegressive Distributed Lagged (EC-ARDL) model, using monthly time series data during the recent 70 periods (Jan-2011~Oct-2016). Analysis results can be summarized as follows. First, the Seoul population is positively correlated, but shortly negatively, to transit ridership for all modes. Second, the increase of railway ridership in the non-Seoul capital region has an significant important role in increasing transit ridership for all modes from the long-term perspective, but only for subway transit ridership from the short-term one. Third, increase in relative gas price per liter per KW1000 subway basic fare has negative long-run impacts on ridership only for entire and bus transit, while only having negative short-run impact on subway transit one. Fourth, the increase in the number of subway stops has positive impacts on ridership for all modes in the short-term, but negative impact on bus ridership and positive one on subway and entire ridership in the long-term. Lastly, ratio of economic activity participation is positively correlated only to bus ridership in the long-term.

참고문헌 (Reference)

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