선거 여론조사 보도에서 방법론 문제와 부정적 보도 경향의 관계: 주요 일간지의 16-18대 국회의원 선거기사 내용분석 = Methodological Drawbacks and Undesirable Reporting in Election Poll Coverage: A Content Analysis of General Election Coverage in Korean Newspapers

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

A long line of studies has criticized the `undesirable` reporting of election polls that undermines the overall quality of election coverage. This research attempts to unveil the possible relationships between various methodological problems and the tendency of `undesirable` reports that constructs the political reality negatively. Based on a content analysis of poll coverage during the 2000, 2004, and 2008 General Elections in Korea, the results are threefold. First, the less poll reports disclose the technical information, the more tendency the articles show `horse-race`, `exaggerated-inaccurate`, and `biased-conflicting` reports. Second, several items of methodological analytic errors are densely related to the `horse-race` portrayal of the elections. However, the positive relations between analytic errors and `exaggerated-inaccurate` report are partially observed. Third, the relations between methodological interpretive errors and the tendency of `horse-race` portrayal are meaningfully significant, although those with the other two types of `undesirable` reports are not. In sum, the results suggest that proper understanding of associations between a variety of methodological flaws and the tendency of `undesirable` reports contribute to the improvement of the journalistic quality of election poll coverage.

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