북한의 핵 억지와 강제: 역사와 전망 = North Korea`s Nuclear strategy: A Turning Point

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

During 1990s, North Korea had made to escape from the asymmetric cold war context where he was left to be the only country that gains no benefits from the post cold war era in the North East Asia. In the first half of the 1990s, the efforts he made were belligerent. For example, there were 1994 nuclear strategy, ``Military First Politics``, and the ``Cross-Alliance Policy`` for separating South Korea and US strategically. After 1998, North Korea changed his strategy. He tried to transform himself into a normal state in response to the engagement policy simultaneously taken by Kim Dae-jung and Clinton administration. But it was too late for North Korea to be a normal state by his open door policy. Bush Administration`s ABC(anything but clinton) policy and Pax-Sinica styled new china leadership were main reasons for the failure of his innovative policy in 2002. The ``Six-Party Talks`` has emerged in 2003 to deal with the problems raised by North Korea. Fiercely opposing the leading role of US-Sino in the bargaining regime, North Korea officially declared he would develope the capability of deterrence . The nuclear test in 2006 was the exemplary case showing North Korea`s strong opposition to US-Sino`s leading role in the Talks, as well as his efforts accomplishing both deterrence and compellence. So far, the new strategy taken by North Korea seems to be successful. It led US to put more emphasis on the bilateral relationship with North Korea. In the upcoming processes of negotiation regime, North Korea would have three options; declaring nuclear disarmament, establishing a nuclear weapon free zone, and suggesting the limited denuclearization. Which way North Korea will take may depend on what kind of strategic environment would bring out from the role shifts among major countries in the Six-Party Talks.