북한의 군사노선과 한반도 군사위협 = North Korea's Military Line and the Military Threat on the Korean Peninsula

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

"Ideology, gun, and the science & technology are the three pillars of the strong and prosperous county," "Militarism is the basic and the most fundamental strategy to keep forever and the number one national affairs once there is imperialism and continuity for revolution," The Korean Revolution initiated by the guns should be completed till the end," are the steal-like belief of the Great Leader Kim Jong-Il.... Rodong Shinmun (January 1, 2000)
Under Kim Il Sung's guidance the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) adopted four major military lines (self-reliant military policy) at the fifth meeting of the 4th Central Committee of the Korean Workers Party in December 1962. The economic policy centered on heavy industry was successful in building strong military forces, but it has resulted in the collapse of general economy. Millions of people starved to death and North Korea has appealed to the international society for help by revealing the starvation of its people. But the food shortage and disdain from the world cannot stop the DPRK from reinforcing its military forces as well as frequent provocations. It launched its first long-range missile, or its first satellite (called Bright Star) on August 31, 1998, and continues to develop mass destruction weapons such as chemical weapons, nuclear bombs and lone-range missiles.
The military-oriented policy of North Korea has contributed greatly to the building of a militarily strong state, but it has filed to develop its economy. The construction of self-reliant socialism was nothing but an empty slogan which could never present solutions to its staggering economic problems. North Korea now maintains the fifth largest military forces in the world, and its goal for maintaining such large forces has been the communizatin of the entire Korean peninsula.
The DPRK has developed three major first-strike strategies towards South Korea. First, a blitzkrieg! The Korean People's Army of the DPRK has developed surprise and simultaneous attack strategies to turn the Korean peninsula into a battlefield, and complete the war before the arrival of additional U.S. forces by penetrating deep into the center with rapid mechanized forces. Second, the brinkmanship. The DPRK has benefited economically from its brinkmanship tactics used against the U.S., Japan, and the Republic of Korea (ROK), In spite of such tactics, one cannot rule out the possibility of direct use of the strategic weapons. Third, provocative tactics of lower degree. Kim Il Sung proclaimed during a 1960 rally of the KWP that the critical mass of revolutionary forces could not be produced by waiting that is long prolonged. Revolutionary struggles should continue with a proper mixture of politics, economy, violence, non-violence, legal and illegal means in accordance with changing situations. Following the spirit of Kim Il Sung's speech, North Korea initiated a couple of provocations, including the intentional infiltration into the West Sea in June 1999.
The major elements of threat of the Korean People's Army against South Korea are as follows:
Special Commandos: The special troops of 100,000 men organized as the Light Infantry Division, are the major forces for provoking low intensive strife, but are also capable of launching simultaneous attacks both on the frontline and in the rear area by facilitating combined operations with the regular army.
Conventional Long-range Artillery: North Korea's long-range artillery that include 170㎜ self-propelled guns, 240㎜ emission guns, and FROG-5/7 ground-to-ground rockets installed in the early 1990s are capable of creating havoc in the Seoul metropolitan areas, whenever used.
Fighter Bombers: The most serious threat against the strategic targets are 6000 fighter planes and 80 more bombers. The 60MIG-l7s deployed on the frontline areas can reach Seoul in 6minutes.
Mechanized Units: The mechanized units, major combat forces, are rapid penetration forces armored with impulse, firepower, bombproof and speed. The Korean People's Army maintains four mechanized corps, one tank corps, and two artillery corps that can carry out brigade-level operations independently, and they can surround the northern part of Suwon (40㎞ south of Seoul) in 24hours.
Strategic Weapons: North Korea that maintains the NCND has developed strategic weapons in secret. South Korea has complied with the international agreements of IAEA, CWC, MTCR, and BWC, and does not develop any strategic weapons. However, the DPRK continues to develop such weapons in violation of these agreements, and it thus threatens Japan, the United States and South Korea with its kill rates and long-range delivery system. George J. Tenet revealed at the U.S. Senate Special Intelligence Committee on February 2, 2000 that the test launcing of the DPRK Rodong 1 long-range missile has confirmed North Korea's capability for launching the nuclear bomb-tipped Rodong 2 (ICBM) against the United States within this year.
Caspar W. Weinberger, former U.S. Secretary of Defense, and Jun Ik Chang, former principal at of the Korean Military Academy, put these three strategies and five elements of threat in realistic terms in their articles, '"The Next War," and "North Korean Nuclear&Missile War," respectively. These authors have sent us warning signals about the dangers of war on the Korean peninsula.
Can or is North Korea suffering front the severe shortage of food, provoke a war? Does a danger of war on the Korean peninsula exist? These ambiguous questions only tend to paralyze people whose concerns with their safety are lulled into superficial peace. North Korea has continued to strengthen ifs war capability in spite of the agony of its people over the lack of their daily necessities. And yet, North Korea is today superior to South Korea in the areas of manpower, military equipment, organization and strategies. The engagement policy of South Korea can never succeed without its strong defense capabilities and the security concerns of its people. The government should be prepared for the threat of North Korea's military power for conventional and other wars. At the same time, South Korea should actively participate in the cooperative system of defense with the U.S. and Japan.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 서언
• 1. 강성대국과 군사노선
• 2. 북한의 군사력 발전
• 3. 북한군의 편성배치 운영개념
• 4. 전략무기
• 5. 위협분석
• 6. 결론