재무분석가의 법인세비용 예측여부 결정 요인 및 예측정보의 유용성에 관한 실증연구 = An Empirical Analysis for Determinants of Analysts' Corporate Tax Forecast and its Relevance in Capital Market

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study examines whether sell－side analyst provide forecast about corporate tax expenses for firms with higher variations in their tax burden or expenses in order to meet investors' demand which can lead sophisticate analysis of firms' future performance. We also examine whether capital market incorporate to tax forecast and informational contents of firms with forecast differ from firms without tax forecast.
Empirical analyses using 2,042 firm－year observation from 2005 to 2010 provide several interesting features as follows：First, we find that analysts' forecast on tax expenses is provided based on systematical estimation according to the statistical test by comparing their forecast with simple estimations following statutory rule or historical effective tax rate. Second, we find that analysts less provide tax expense forecast for firms with high volatility in effective tax rate, with large book－tax difference and with high volatility in book－tax difference. Third, we observe that capital market incorporate to tax forecast from the finding that informational contents of firms with forecast show significantly positive correlation with firms' cumulative excessive stock return.
Our study contribute to the literature by empirically testing the incentives in providing systematic forecast on tax expenses and its relevance in capital market. our findings imply that sell－side analysts' forecast on tax expenses may play mediating role in providing more reliable earnings forecast and investors generally perceive incremental informational contents from their systematic forecast on tax expenses.

참고문헌 (Reference)

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