2010년 서울시 인바운드 관광산업의 경제적 파급효과 예측: 직접조사에 의한 지역산업연관모델을 중심으로 = Forecasting the Economic Impact of Inbound Tourism Industry for the year of 2010 in Seoul: Survey-based Regional Input-Output Model

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study aims to estimate the economic impact of the inbound tourism industry for the year of 2010 on the economy of the metropolitan Seoul. To this end, inbound tourists and tourism receipts for the year of 2010 were predicted using forecasting techniques at the first stage. At the second stage, the regional Input-Output(I-O) model was employed to derive tourism multipliers in terms of output, income, employment, value-added, and tax. In particular, this study utilized the regional I-O transactions tables which were developed by Bank of Korea for the first time, using a direct survey method. The results of the regional I-O model indicate that inbound tourism in the year of 2010 would generate 14 trillion and 334 billion Won of output impact, 3 trillion and 397 billion Won of income impact, 7 trillion and 458 billion Won of value-added impact, 847 billion Won of tax, and 143,652 full-time jobs throughout direct and indirect effects. The results also show that hotel industry would produce the largest economic impacts followed by wholesale and retail trade, restaurant, tour & transportation, and culture & entertainment service sectors. In particular, the output impact accounted for 7.4% of the gross regional domestic product for the metropolitan Seoul.

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