미국 대외전략 유형분석과 바이든 정부 전략에 대한 함의 = Typology Analysis of US Grand Strategies and Its implications for the Prospect of the Biden Government’s Foreign Policy

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

During the post-Cold War era, what kind of foreign policy has the US taken to maintain its hegemony? What kind of a foreign policy paradigm will the Biden administration adopt? This paper compares and analyzes the post-Cold War US foreign polices and hegemonic strategies. At first, this article looks into current debates on foreign policy among the US academics with focus on liberal hegemony and the Trump’s legacy. In consideration of it and attitudes toward hegemony, the paradigms for US foreign policy are categorized into restraint, illiberal hegemony and liberal hegemony. At strategy level, this paper picks up four strategies including offshore balancing of restraint, Jackonianism of illiberal hegemony and conservative internationalism and liberal internationalism of liberal hegemony. After comparatively analyzing the features and distinctions of the four strategies, this paper tries to foresee the prospect of the Biden administration’s foreign policy. In conclusion, the Biden administration seems to take liberal hegemony as a basis. However, in the short run, it is expected to adopt a fusion of offshore balancing, Jacksonianism and liberal hegemony at implementation level.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

냉전 이후 미국은 패권유지를 위해 어떠한 전략을 구사해왔는가? 바이든 정부는 과연 어떠한 패러다임으로 미국의 대외전략을 이끌어 나갈 것인가? 본 논고는 탈냉전 이후 미국정부가 취해온 대외전략을 유형별로 분류하고 미국패권전략을 분석해 본다. 우선 미국 학계의 대외전략에 대한 담론을 자유패권주의와 트럼프 정부의 유산을 중심으로 분석한 후 담론분석과 미국 패권주의에 대한 인식을 바탕으로 미국의 탈냉전 대외전략 패러다임을 절제주의, 비자유패권주의, 자유패권주의로 구분한다. 전략차원에서는 절제주의인 역외균형, 비자유패권주의인 잭슨주의, 자유패권주의인 보수국제주의와 자유국제주의 네 가지로 분리하여 그 특징과 차별성을 비교분석한다. 마지막으로 유형분석에 근거하여 바이든 정부의 전략유형을 분석한 후 결론 분분에서 바이든 정부 전략의 향후 방향에 대해서 전망해 본다. 바이든 정부의 전략은 자유패권주의에 기저를 두되 전략실행 방법에 있어서 단기적으로는 역외균형과 잭슨주의의 경제민족주의를 가미한 전략을 추진할 것으로 보인다. 하지만 중장기적으로는 자유패권주의를 견지해 나갈 것으로 전망된다.

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