RISS 학술연구정보서비스

검색
다국어 입력

http://chineseinput.net/에서 pinyin(병음)방식으로 중국어를 변환할 수 있습니다.

변환된 중국어를 복사하여 사용하시면 됩니다.

예시)
  • 中文 을 입력하시려면 zhongwen을 입력하시고 space를누르시면됩니다.
  • 北京 을 입력하시려면 beijing을 입력하시고 space를 누르시면 됩니다.
닫기
    인기검색어 순위 펼치기

    RISS 인기검색어

      KCI등재

      중국 Term Spread의 다른 국가 실물경제 예측력 연구 -중국과의 경제동조현상이 강한 국가를 중심으로 = A study on predictability of real economy of other countries from China’s term spread -With a focus on the countries showing coupling of economies -

      한글로보기

      https://www.riss.kr/link?id=A105362092

      • 0

        상세조회
      • 0

        다운로드
      서지정보 열기
      • 내보내기
      • 내책장담기
      • 공유하기
      • 오류접수

      부가정보

      다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

      Coupling of regional economies has recently been a noticeably apparent and in particular, the influence of Chinese economy on neighboring countries, especially Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan, has been expanding. Given the circumstances, this study hypothesized that the China’s term spread, a factor shown to have particular predictive power in forecasting China’s economic and business cycle, may be able to predict the changes in real economies of the mentioned neighboring countries.
      With regards to predictions in sample the results are as follows. In the case of Korea, the term spread of Korea has a significant predictive power in predicting the future real economy change in Korea. However, if the model factored in Chinese term spread as well, Chinese term spread appeared to have a superior informative and predictive power than did Korea’s term spread. In the case of Hong Kong, the domestic term spread had a significant predictive power since the fifth quarter, and the Chinese term spread appeared consistently to have a significant predictive power. When both were factored into the model, both domestic and China’s term spread were shown to have significant predictive power. That is, the addition of China’s term spread increased the predictive power of the model. In the case of Taiwan, the domestic term spread did not show significant predictive power. In contrast, it was observed that China’s term spread had a significant predictive power on the changes of the real economy of Taiwan.
      With regards to predictions out of the sample the results are as follows. In the case of Korea, for both instances when the model was constructed using the term spread of Korea and China individually, and when the model was constructed using both Korean and Chinese term spread, the predictive power improve after the fifth quarter for the model constructed using China’s term spread only or when the China term spread was added to the Korean term spread. In the case of Hong Kong, when the model was constructed using the term spread of Hong Kong and China individually, the term spread of China has shown predictive power only in the fifth quarter, and in comparing the predictive power of term spread on Hong Kong alone as opposed to the term spread of both Hong Kong and China, the term spread of the latter has shown significantly better predictive power than the former since the fifth quarter. In the case of Taiwan, when the model was constructed using the term spread of Taiwan and China individually, the term spread of China has shown significantly better predictive power after the fourth quarter, and when the model was constructed using both the term spread of Taiwan and China, the model with the China term spread added had a better predictive power.
      번역하기

      Coupling of regional economies has recently been a noticeably apparent and in particular, the influence of Chinese economy on neighboring countries, especially Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan, has been expanding. Given the circumstances, this study hypoth...

      Coupling of regional economies has recently been a noticeably apparent and in particular, the influence of Chinese economy on neighboring countries, especially Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan, has been expanding. Given the circumstances, this study hypothesized that the China’s term spread, a factor shown to have particular predictive power in forecasting China’s economic and business cycle, may be able to predict the changes in real economies of the mentioned neighboring countries.
      With regards to predictions in sample the results are as follows. In the case of Korea, the term spread of Korea has a significant predictive power in predicting the future real economy change in Korea. However, if the model factored in Chinese term spread as well, Chinese term spread appeared to have a superior informative and predictive power than did Korea’s term spread. In the case of Hong Kong, the domestic term spread had a significant predictive power since the fifth quarter, and the Chinese term spread appeared consistently to have a significant predictive power. When both were factored into the model, both domestic and China’s term spread were shown to have significant predictive power. That is, the addition of China’s term spread increased the predictive power of the model. In the case of Taiwan, the domestic term spread did not show significant predictive power. In contrast, it was observed that China’s term spread had a significant predictive power on the changes of the real economy of Taiwan.
      With regards to predictions out of the sample the results are as follows. In the case of Korea, for both instances when the model was constructed using the term spread of Korea and China individually, and when the model was constructed using both Korean and Chinese term spread, the predictive power improve after the fifth quarter for the model constructed using China’s term spread only or when the China term spread was added to the Korean term spread. In the case of Hong Kong, when the model was constructed using the term spread of Hong Kong and China individually, the term spread of China has shown predictive power only in the fifth quarter, and in comparing the predictive power of term spread on Hong Kong alone as opposed to the term spread of both Hong Kong and China, the term spread of the latter has shown significantly better predictive power than the former since the fifth quarter. In the case of Taiwan, when the model was constructed using the term spread of Taiwan and China individually, the term spread of China has shown significantly better predictive power after the fourth quarter, and when the model was constructed using both the term spread of Taiwan and China, the model with the China term spread added had a better predictive power.

      더보기

      참고문헌 (Reference)

      1 朱世武, "利率期限结构对通货膨胀预测能\力的实证分析" 中国货币市场 10-, 2005

      2 郭涛, "中国利率期限结构的货币政策含义" 03 : 2008

      3 Estrella, "The Term Structure as predictor of Real Economic Activity" 46 (46): 1991

      4 Dotsey, "The Predictive Content of the Interest Rate Yield Spread for Future Economic Growth"

      5 Galbraith, "Testing for Asymmetry in the Link Between the Yield Spread and Output in the G7 Countries" 19 (19): 2000

      6 Fama, "Term structure forecast of interest rate, inflation, and real returns" 25 (25): 1990

      7 이기영, "Term Spread의 중국실물경기 예측력연구-PMI및 선행지수와의 비교를 중심으로-" 한중사회과학학회 15 (15): 71-96, 2017

      8 이기영, "Term Spread의 중국경기예측력에 관한 연구" 중국연구소 64 : 215-242, 2015

      9 Hamilton, "Re-Examination of the Predictability of the yield Spread for Real Economic Activity" 34 (34): 2002

      10 Estrella, "Is There a Role for Monetary Aggregates in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?" National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc 1996

      1 朱世武, "利率期限结构对通货膨胀预测能\力的实证分析" 中国货币市场 10-, 2005

      2 郭涛, "中国利率期限结构的货币政策含义" 03 : 2008

      3 Estrella, "The Term Structure as predictor of Real Economic Activity" 46 (46): 1991

      4 Dotsey, "The Predictive Content of the Interest Rate Yield Spread for Future Economic Growth"

      5 Galbraith, "Testing for Asymmetry in the Link Between the Yield Spread and Output in the G7 Countries" 19 (19): 2000

      6 Fama, "Term structure forecast of interest rate, inflation, and real returns" 25 (25): 1990

      7 이기영, "Term Spread의 중국실물경기 예측력연구-PMI및 선행지수와의 비교를 중심으로-" 한중사회과학학회 15 (15): 71-96, 2017

      8 이기영, "Term Spread의 중국경기예측력에 관한 연구" 중국연구소 64 : 215-242, 2015

      9 Hamilton, "Re-Examination of the Predictability of the yield Spread for Real Economic Activity" 34 (34): 2002

      10 Estrella, "Is There a Role for Monetary Aggregates in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?" National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc 1996

      11 Stock, "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Price" 41 (41): 2003

      더보기

      동일학술지(권/호) 다른 논문

      동일학술지 더보기

      더보기

      분석정보

      View

      상세정보조회

      0

      Usage

      원문다운로드

      0

      대출신청

      0

      복사신청

      0

      EDDS신청

      0

      동일 주제 내 활용도 TOP

      더보기

      주제

      연도별 연구동향

      연도별 활용동향

      연관논문

      연구자 네트워크맵

      공동연구자 (7)

      유사연구자 (20) 활용도상위20명

      인용정보 인용지수 설명보기

      학술지 이력

      학술지 이력
      연월일 이력구분 이력상세 등재구분
      2026 평가예정 재인증평가 신청대상 (재인증)
      2020-01-01 평가 등재학술지 유지 (재인증) KCI등재
      2017-01-01 평가 등재학술지 유지 (계속평가) KCI등재
      2013-01-01 평가 등재학술지 유지 (등재유지) KCI등재
      2010-01-01 평가 등재학술지 선정 (등재후보2차) KCI등재
      2009-01-01 평가 등재후보 1차 PASS (등재후보1차) KCI등재후보
      2007-01-01 평가 등재후보학술지 선정 (신규평가) KCI등재후보
      더보기

      학술지 인용정보

      학술지 인용정보
      기준연도 WOS-KCI 통합IF(2년) KCIF(2년) KCIF(3년)
      2016 0.39 0.39 0.41
      KCIF(4년) KCIF(5년) 중심성지수(3년) 즉시성지수
      0.35 0.34 0.553 0.31
      더보기

      이 자료와 함께 이용한 RISS 자료

      나만을 위한 추천자료

      해외이동버튼